THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY THE CASE OF DELTA STATE

Abstract

This study was on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state. three objectives were raised which included: To ascertain the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state, To find out the effect of climate change on food security in Delta state and to ascertain the effect of climate change on land. A total of 77 responses were received and validated from the enrolled participants where all respondents were drawn from Delta state. Hypothesis was tested using Chi-Square statistical tool (SPSS).

Chapter one

Introduction

1.1Background of the study

Climate change refers to changes beyond the average atmospheric condition that are caused both by natural factors such as the orbit of earth’s revolution, volcanic activities and crustal movements and by artificial factors such as the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosol. Climate change by global warming, which refers to the average increase in global temperature, has become a megatrend that will lead to significant global changes in the future. Concerning its impacts, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented considerable scientific evidences in its fourth report on climate change (2007) and they have become clearly recognized worldwide. In addition, people have become more aware of the fact that global warming cannot be avoided due to the continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the changes in the climate system. The Club of Rome Report 1972 officially raised global warming as an international issue and, in 1985, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) officially declared carbon dioxide as the principal cause of global warming. In order to effectively cope with the global warming issue, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was organized in 1988 and has carried out systematic research and in-depth studies on climate change.

Agriculture is strongly influenced by weather and climate. While farmers are often flexible in dealing with weather and year-to-year variability, there is nevertheless a high degree of adaptation to the local climate in the form of established infrastructure, local farming practice and individual experience. Climate change can therefore be expected to impact on agriculture, potentially threatening established aspects of farming systems but also providing opportunities for improvements (Abou-Hadid, 2003)

Most previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on agriculture (and indeed on other sectors) have focused on time horizons towards the end of the twenty-first century, illustrating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change that could be avoided by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Global warming not only causes a change in average temperature and precipitation but also increases the frequency of floods, droughts, heat waves, and the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes following the change in temperature and precipitation patterns. The impacts of climate change are also shown in various other forms throughout the world, including the rise of sea level, decrease in glaciers, northward movement of plant habitats, changes in animal habitats, rise of ocean temperature, shortened winter and early arrival of spring.

However, there is also a need to assess the impacts of climate change over the next few decades, which may now be largely unavoidable owing to inertia in the physical climate system and the time scales over which large-scale change in human social, economic and political influences on greenhouse gas emissions could be brought about. Even if greenhouse gas emissions began to be reduced immediately, there would still be some level of ongoing warming for decades and some sea-level rise continuing for centuries, as the climate system is slow to respond fully to imposed changes.

The threat that climate changes pose to agricultural production does not only cover the area of crop husbandry but also includes livestock and in fact the total agricultural sector. African farmers also depend on livestock for income, food and animal products Nin, Ehui, (Benin 2007). Climate can affect livestock both directly and indirectly (Adams et al. 1999; Manning and Nobrew 2001). Direct effects of climate variables such as air, temperature, humidity, wind speed and other climate factors influence animal performance such as growth, milk production, wool production and reproduction. Climate can also affect the quantity and quality of feed stuffs such as pasture, forage, and grain and also the severity and distribution of livestock diseases and parasite (Niggol and Mendelsohn 2008). Hence the totality of agricultural sector is considered by examining agricultural productivity. Rainfall is by far the most important element of climate change in Nigeria and water resources potential in the country (Adejumo 2004). The southern region of Nigeria is increasingly becoming an arid environment at a very fast rate per year occasioned by fast reduction in the amount of surface water, flora and fauna resources on land (Obioha 2008). Consistent reduction in rainfall leads to a reduction in the natural regeneration rate of land resources (Fasona and Omojola 2005). This makes people to exploit more previously undisturbed lands leading to depletion of the forest cover and increase on sand dunes/Aeolian deposits in the northern axis of Nigeria. Climate change is the most severe problem that world is facing today. It has been suggested that it is a more serious threat than global terrorism (King 2004). The southern area of Nigeria largely known for high rainfall is currently confronted by irregularity in the rainfall and temperature is gradually increasing in the Guinea savannah zone of the country. (FME 2004).

Statement of the problem

Climate change affects food and water resources that are critical for livelihood in Africa where much of the population especially the poor, rely on local supply system that are sensitive to climate variation. Disruptions of existing food and water systems will have devastating implications for development and livelihood. These are expected to add to the challenges climate change already poses for poverty eradication (De Wit and Stankiewicz 2006). According to Obioha (2009), the sustainability of the environment to provide all life support systems and the materials for fulfilling all developmental aspirations of man and animal is dependent on the suitability of the climate which is undergoing constant changes. The effect of these changes is posing threat to food security in Nigeria. The study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Using Delta state as a case study

Objective of the study

The objectives of the study are;

1. To ascertain the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state
2. To find out the effect of climate change on food security in Delta state
3. To ascertain the effect of climate change on land

Research hypotheses

The following research hypotheses will be formulated;

H0: there is no effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state

H1: there is effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state

H0: there is no effect of climate change on food security in Delta state

H2: there is effect of climate change on food security in Delta state

Significance of the study

The study will give a very clear insight on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. The study will be beneficial to students, farmers, government of Delta state and the government of Delta state. The study will educate the about the effect of climate change on food security which normally affect the everybody in the state. The study will also serve as are reference to other researcher that will embark on the related topic

Scope and limitation of the study

The scope of the study covers the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. The study will be limited to Delta state

Limitations/constraints are inevitable in carrying out a research work of this nature. However, in the course of this research, the following constraints were encountered thus:

1. Non-availability of enough resources (finance): A work of this nature is very tasking financially, money had to be spent at various stages of the research such resources which may aid proper carrying out of the study were not adequately available.

Time factor: The time used in carrying out the research work is relatively not enough to bring the best information out of it. However, I hope that the little that is contained in this study will go a long way in solving many greater problems

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