IMPACT OF WEATHER ON GUINEA CORN PRODUCTION IN IGABI LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

Guinea corn is one of the major cereal crops widely grown in Nigeria, and a very important staple food for the populace particularly in the northern part of the country. Excessive increases  in  temperature  results  in  low  agricultural  productivity  and  this  may lead  to depletion of soil nutrients and destruction of soil structure and organisms which contribute to the fertility of the soil. The study examines the impact of weather on guinea corn production in Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State, Nigeria. Qualitative and quantitative research techniques was adopted. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) was used. The findings show temperature of 0.74 which signifies strong positive relationship between temperature and Guinea corn yield and Rainfall 0.117 which also signifies strong positive relationship between rainfall and Guinea corn yield.  The mean maximum temperature trend of the study area for the period under study has been very variable (fluctuating). The lowest temperature was recorded in 2011 which was 11804.00C (in total) and 32.30C in average, while the highest temperature was recorded in the years of 2009 and 2013 which was 12488.9 0C in total and 34.40C in average. The study concludes that rainfall and the temperature of the study area for the period under study and as of these recent years has been inconsistence (fluctuating). The nature of weather in relation to Guinea corn production for the study period and as of recent years has been making the yields inconsistence (fluctuating).  The study recommends that there should be climate monitoring stations for every agricultural zones of Nigeria and there should be time to time awareness and enlightment campaign on the causes of climate change in various parts of the country.

CHAPTER ONE

1.0  INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Guinea corn is one of the major cereal crops widely grown in Nigeria, and a very important staple food for the populace particularly in the northern part of the country (Tashikalma et al., 2012). The Nigerian guinea corn production was 11.5 tons in 2010 and forecast was 11.7 tons in 2011 (United States Department of Agriculture, 2010). The crop yield has increased because of the acceptance by farmers of improved varieties developed by local research  institutes.  Climate  is  a  long-term  average  weather  conditions  that  directly or indirectly affects agricultural production. Weather determines the choice of what plant to cultivate, how to cultivate it, the yields of crops and nature of livestock to keep. Ajadi (2011) reported that solar radiation, temperature, moisture and other climatic parameters determine the global distribution of crops and livestock as well as crop yield and livestock productivity.  Reuben  and  Barau  (2012)  observed  that  rainfall  distribution  and  the occurrence of moisture stress condition during the vegetative period are critical for the yield formation of the guinea corn. In view of the foregoing, Odjugo (2010) opined that weather is unequivocal and its impacts are here with us.

Year-to-year variations in crop yields pose a significant risk to subsistence farmers or people depending on local supply (Headey, 2011; Schewe et al., 2017). Annual crop yields depend on several factors. In addition to weather conditions, the occurrence of weeds, diseases, and pests can result in yield fluctuations (Gregory et al., 2009). Weather has emerged as a global concern in the past 20 years. One particular worry is the potentially disastrous consequence for agriculture and food security in many parts of the world, particularly developing countries (FAO 2007; IPCC 2007; Kotir 2011). Crop farming is extremely vulnerable to climate change and it has been predicted that weather will impact negatively on agricultural yield in the 21st century through higher temperatures, and rainfall variable (WB 2010).  This susceptibility of agriculture to weather has led to the scientific and policy communities questioning the capacity of farmers to adapt (Mertz et al. 2009). Weather impacts are already being experienced through increasing temperatures, variable rainfall and climate related extreme events.

Available pieces of evidence show that each day brings fresh proofs of weather impacts and these impacts include increasing temperatures, decreasing rainfall. Excessive increases in temperature results in low agricultural productivity and this may lead to depletion of soil nutrients and destruction of soil structure and organisms which contribute to the fertility of the soil. Ordinarily, rainfall can be considered to have positive impact on agricultural productivity except where it leads to flooding, erosion and leaching.  Rainfall amount and high temperatures are the most important elements of weather variation in Nigeria as a result the north region of Nigeria is increasingly becoming an arid environment at a very fast rate occasioned by the fast reduction in the amount of surface water, flora and fauna resources on land. Consistent reduction in rainfall leads to a reduction in the regeneration rate of land resources. The northern zone particular Kaduna therefore faces the threat of desert encroachment (Adejumo, 2014)

Impacts of weather on the socio-economic sector guinea corn production are projected to include;  decline  in  yield  and  production,  reduced  marginal  GDP  from  agriculture, fluctuation in local market price, change in geographical distribution of trade regimes, increased number of people at risk of hunger and food security and migration and civil unrest (Khanal, 2014). Increase in temperature, at the same time, might affect both the physical and chemical properties in the soil. Increased temperature may accelerate the rate of releasing CO2 resulting in less than optimal conditions for plant growth. When temperatures exceed the optimal level for biological processes, guinea corn often respond negatively with a steep drop in net growth and yield. Heat stress might affect the whole physiological development, maturation and finally yield of cultivated crops like guinea corn (Khanal, 2014; Rosegrant et al., 2013).

The impact of weather on crop production in Kaduna State has received limited attention despite the fact that over 60% of the active populations are farmers. Studies on weather variations have revealed that the potential impacts of weather will include every aspect of the four dimensions of food security; food availability (production and trade), food accessibility, food stable supplies, and food utilization (Nwafor, 2007). Olarenwaju (2012) reported that many of the problems facing agricultural production are weather related. It is against this background that this study is put forward to ascertain the impact of weather on guinea corn yield in Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Yamusa, et al., (2013) opined that the amount of rainfall is increasing above normal, the onset dates are always varying with backward shift in planting dates of up to 10 days in the ecological zone, Igabi in Kaduna state belong to and unpredictable incidence of early season dry spells thus affecting the length of growing season. If the present trend should continue, there will be greater negative effects of this variability on agricultural production since pest and plant disease vectors are often arthropod and their geographical distribution is determining by rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and availability of host plants.

Excessive increases in temperature results in low agricultural productivity and this may lead to depletion of soil nutrients and destruction of soil structure and organisms which contribute to the fertility of the soil. Ordinarily, rainfall can be considered to have positive effect on agricultural productivity except where it leads to flooding, erosion and leaching. Rainfall amount and high temperatures are the most important elements of weather that affect  crop  yield  in  Nigeria as  a result  the northern region  of Nigeria is  increasingly becoming an arid environment at a very fast rate occasioned by the fast reduction in the amount of surface water, flora and fauna resources on land.

Consistent reduction in rainfall leads to a reduction in the regeneration rate of land resources.  The  northern  zone  therefore  faces  the  threat  of  desert  encroachment.  The southern area of Nigeria, which was largely known for high rainfall, is currently confronted by irregular rainfall and high temperatures (Adejumo, 2014; Obioha, 2008; FME, 2004). The impact of weather on agricultural production in Nigeria has received limited attention despite the fact that over 60% of the active populations of Nigerians are farmers. Studies on impact of weather globally and in Nigeria have revealed that the potential impacts of weather will include every aspect of the four dimensions of food security; food availability (production  and  trade),  food  accessibility,  food  stable  supplies,  and  food  utilization (Nwafor, 2014). Olarenwaju (2012) reported that many of the problems facing agricultural production are weather related. Based on this paucity of knowledge on the impact of weather on guinea corn production in Kaduna State, particularly Igabi Local Government Area. Hence, this study will attempt to fill the existing gap created by those identified researches which will make this thesis worthy to be carried out by the researcher to provide answer to the listed research questions.

1.3    Research Questions

The study sought to find answers to the following questions:

i.      What has been the trend of weather variations (Rainfall and temperature) over the past 20 years (1999-2018) in Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State?

ii.      How does weather variations impact guinea corn production in the area?

iii.      How  do  the  farmers  perceive  the  impact  of  weather  variations  on  guinea  corn production?

iv.      What are the adaptation strategies of the farmers in response to the impacts of weather variations?

1.4    Research Aim and Objectives

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of weather on guinea corn production in

Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State, Nigeria. Specifically, the study sought to:

i.    Examination of Rainfall and Temperature Variations across the study area for over the past 20 years

ii.  Examine the impacts of weather on Guinea Corn production;

iii. Examine the farmer‘s perception on the impacts of weather variations on Guinea Corn production;

iv. Assess the current adaptation strategies of the farmers in response to the impacts of weather variations.

1.5    Justification for the Study

Weather plays a significant role in shaping natural ecosystems, human economies, and cultures in many ways. In developing countries, a greater proportion of people engage in livelihood activities pertaining to primary production, making the impact of weather more intense than in developed areas where secondary activities dominate.

The study will go a long way to improve the methodological strand of previous studies. The quantitative approach has been adopted by previous researchers in finding out the effects of climate variability on crop production (Traore et al., 2013; Awotoye and Matthew, 2010 and Tshiala and Olwoch, 2010). However, the deficiency associated with this particular approach is that, it emphasises the breadth of the study rather than the depth (Creswell, 2010). It is in the light of this that this research employs the mixed methodology to add a qualitative dimension to the already used quantitative approach to help address the problem holistically.

The study will provide information on the perceived extent to which weather variation has impacted on Guinea corn production and the farming families. The information will help government to encourage and support farmers in production activities. The knowledge of the findings would help the government to make policies on how to check the effects of climate change on agriculture in the area and Nigeria in general. The study will provide information to agricultural extension workers on adaptation strategies, which they could teach the farmers to adapt to in such situations. One of the purposes of the study is to discover the suitable strategies for alleviating the impact of weather variations. The information would serve as a body of knowledge for the agricultural extension workers who teach the farmers on improved farming practices.

The findings of the study would help farmers to reduce the impact of climate change on  agricultural  production. The  study will  suggest  to  the  farmers‘ suitable  adaptation options in coping with weather variations effects on agriculture. An understanding of the impacts of weather would help the framers to mount   appropriate   strategies   to   keep agricultural   production   profitable   to matching the varying trend in farming activities. The study could be used as a resource material on weather variations and its impact on agriculture for researchers who may be interested in researching on related  topics. The research   is   equipped   with   the   findings   on   the   impacts   of  weather  guinea  corn production and farming families as well as strategies for coping with the change which could beef up the literature in their studies.

The study will therefore serve as an important document that will guide prospective researchers in their quest to researching into areas related to climate variability impact and adaptation. Finally, even though research on adaptation to weather variability seems to be on the increase there is still the need to conduct further research to enable the sharing of different adaptive strategies adopted by farmers at different places. This analysis will go a long way to influence policy makers to enable them document effective adaptive strategies that  will  help  reduce  the  negative  effect  of  climate  variability  on  rural  farming communities, especially those with similar environmental characteristics.

1.6 Scope of the Study

The geographical scope of this study will cover four communities (Amaza, Audi, Burgu and Yalwa) in Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State. Contextually, the study will analysed the trend of climate variability over the past twenty years (1999-2018) as well as how weather variations impacts Guinea Corn production in Igabi Local Government Area. The study will  also  be investigated how the farmers perceive the impacts  of weather variations on their crop production and finally assesses the current adaptation strategies of the farmers in response to the impacts of weather variations.

1.7 The Study Area

1.7.1 Location of the Study Area

Igabi Local Governmnet Area lies within latitudes 100  25′ 28″ N and 110  35′ 53″ N and Longitudes  70   21′  49″  E  and  70   50′  00″  E  (Figure  1.1).  The  area  covers  an  area approximately 3,727 square kilometers and shares boundaries with Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Zaria, Kajuru, Kauru, Igabi and Birnin-Gwari Local Government Councils. Turunku is the headquarters of Igabi LGA which was the seat of power of the famous Queen Amina of Zazzau. The seat of Queen Amina and many historical evidences are still located on Turunku Hill as well as tomb of Bakwa Turunku the father of Queen Amina andher sister Zaria where Zazzau Emirate derived its name.

1.7.2    Climate of the Study Area

1.7.2.1 Rainfall of the Study Area

The study area has  an  average annual rainfall  of 1250mm. The rains  occurs between months of April – October when the South Westerly humid winds brings in rain. The dry seasons last between November and March when the prevailing North Easterly winds (Harmattan) brings with it dusty, dry and cool air of the Sahara desert ushering in the dry season. The mean annual rainfall in the study area ranged from 1000mm to 1500mm. The month of August-September recording highest rains of 300mm (Yamusa, et al., 2015). The rainy season starts between 10th of April to 20th of May and extends to October.

1.7.2.2 Temperature of the Study Area

The temperature of the study area resembles that of the North Central Zone of the country. Temperature ranges between 250 C – 350C during the dry season. The temperature may rise to about 420C in March/April which is the hottest period. The coldest month is December/January. During the harmattan popularly referred to as the West Africa Doctor, temperature sometimes reaches freezing point (Record from the nearest meteorological station over a period of 15years) (Yamusa et al., 2015).

1.7.3    Vegetation and Soils of the Study Area

The vegetation cover of the study area is uniform and monotonous typical of the Northern Guinea Savanna Zone. Green (2007) further described the vegetation as containing three vegetation sub-types viz:

1.   Isoberlinia doka woodland grassland

2.   Gallery or riparian vegetation

3.   Shrub land composed of trees – shrub association.

Other  areas  of  the  forest  are  covered  by  Uapacamonotes  Afornosia  association,  V- togoensis, M. Kekrstingi afzelia Africana, etc. In the low ground near Numanshi stream which stretches into the park serving as a source of water for animals during the dry season, one finds a terminalia Pseudocederela Mitrogya association with; Terminallia macrotera, Mitragyna inermis, philiostigma inermis. The presence of these vegetation types signifies clay composition in the soil.

The soil types of the study area corresponds fairly closely with the vegetation belts of the guinea  savanna  which  extends  from  east  to  west  of  Kaduna  metropolis.  Excepts  for highland areas, Kaduna metropolis has high temperature which promotes active chemical and biological changes in the soil. There are few outcrops and some fossilized literate hills in the study area. Soil types includes; sandy loams and a little clay in valleys (Oyedele, 2011). The climate, soil and hydrology supports the cultivation of most of the study area staple crops and still leaves ample scope for grazing, fresh water, fishing and forestry. Rich fertile alluvial soils are visible around the stream banks. Estimate shows that 80% of the people in the local government area engage directly or indirectly in agricultural activities (Oyedele, 2011). Oyedele (2011) opined that the soils are yellowish to reddish, deep, well drained  and  fine  or  medium  textured.  Bleached  layers  of  ferruginous  tropical  soils associated with ferralitic soils are also found along the River Kaduna flood plain.

1.7.4    Topography of the Study Area

Geologically the study area is covered by sedimentary rock formation consisting of sand stones and alluvial deposited especially around the site of the park. The area lies on a flat gently rolling land with few hills. In and around the Park, there are important land marks which are of potential interest to tourist. Some of the exquisite barren rocks make the landscape alluring and this create attractive scenery. Some of these lands are Tsunin Buffa, Kashiga Mountains, Marmara Hills, etc. the beauty of the under field land marks inhabited by both animals and birds sharing the luxury of tropical sunshine alongside meandering rivers makes the park attractive and beautiful. Most of the hills are rounded granite domes and flat topped mensas or residual hills with reddish-brown sand stones are characteristics relief features of the study area (Jatau et al., 2013).

Generally the topography of the study area is that of an undulating Plateau that forms part of the rich tourist attractions in areas like Kufena in Zaria, Kagoro, Kwoi, Gwantu etc. These  areas  have  protruding  hard  resistant  granite  rocks  that  are  so  attractive  for sightseeing. Variable elevations of land topography ranging from the lowest height of 380m above sea level in river valleys and as high as 450m occurring mostly in upland areas leads to the spring up of streams arounds the study area. The Ukinkina, Kuzomani and Kuwaimbana rivers are some of the major streams that drain around the study area. Other streams include the Dagara stream,  Bogoma stream  and Numashi stream. Kwiambana Rivers forms quite an extensive length of the northern boundary of the study area, draining from west to east. The two streams Kuzomani and Ukinkina both drains from the centre parts of the park. Kuzomani drains to the west into the Kuwaimbana while the Ukinkina drains out from the park in the South West (Shehu, 2011). Its main rivers are River Kaduna, River Gurara, River Kogum and River Kubani (Shehu, 2011).

1.7.5 Geology of the Study Area

The area understudy is underlain by Precambrain rocks of the Nigerian Basement Complex. The weathering of the crystalline Basement Complex rocks under tropical condition is well known to produce a sequence of unconsolidated material whose thickness and lateral extent vary extensively. Groundwater localization within the Basement Complex occurs either in the weathered mantle or in the fracturing, fissuring and jointing systems of the bedrock (Ako and Olorunfemi, 1999; Olayinka and Olorunfemi, 1992). These unconsolidated materials are known to reflect some dominant hydrologic properties, and the highest groundwater  yield  in  Basement  Complex  area are found in  areas  of thick  overburden overlying fractured zones and are characterized by relatively low resistivity. The Basement Complex rocks in the areas are mostly migmatite, granite gneiss, undifferentiated schists and porphyritic biotite grantite.

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