IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION IN NORTH CENTRAL STATES, NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

Climate variability, its impacts and the associated vulnerabilities is a growing concern across the globe. It is believed to be one of the greatest impediments for achieving food security and sustainable crop production globally. The study investigated the impact of climate variability on cereal crop production in the North Central States of Nigeria. The specific objectives were examination of the trend and spatio-temporal variability in climatic variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity); examination of the trend in yield of the selected crops (Rice, Maize and Guinea corn); examination of the relationship between climatic variables and yield of the selected crops; analysis of the effect of daily extreme climatic indices on yield of the selected crops and identification of the adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate variability on crop yield. The study utilized climatic and crop yield data from Climate Prediction Center, Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Agricultural Development Projects (ADPs) and personal interview and questionnaire administration. Non-parametric test, Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimator (β) approach was used to analyse the spatio-temporal trend in climatic variables (Rainfall, Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature and Relative Humidity) and crop yield (Rice, Maize and Guinea corn) during the study period (1989 – 2018). Pearson Product Moment Correlation and Multiple Regression analysis were utilized in the examination of the strength of association between climatic variables and crop yield. Standardised extreme climatic indicators developed by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) were used to assess the effect of extreme climatic indices on crop  yield. Descriptive statistics was used to analyse the questionnaires administered and interview schedule data. The results indicated that a downward trend existed in the monthly rainfall distribution in the study area especially at the onset of the rain in the month of May and an upward trend towards the cessation period in the month of October. On annual basis, there existed downward trend in rainfall in all the study locations except in Lafia where significant upward trend at alpha value of 0.001 was detected. It is evident that maximum 1-day rainfall (R1D) and maximum 5-day rainfall (R5D)  correlated  insignificantly  with  the  three  crops  across  the  study  areas.  The variation in rainfall is between 0.09 mm yr-1 and 6.06 mm yr-1  within the rainy season months of May to October. The result of the crop-climate relationship indicated that rice yield at Abuja and Lafia was strong at 56 % and 54 %, respectively, while it was weak at Minna, Lokoja and Ilorin at 23 %, 27 % and 10 % respectively. For Maize, the result indicated weak relationship in all the study locations except at Lafia which was strong at 57  %. Guinea corn  yield  response to  climate  variability was  weak  over the  study locations, it indicated 37 %, 40 %, 27 %, 24 % and 47 % in Minna, Lokoja, Abuja, Ilorin and Lafi stations, respectively; this is attributable to the fact that it is more tolerant to climatic extremes with much longer growing period than other crops studied. Conclusively, it is established that susceptibility of the yield of the selected cereal crop to the impact of climate variability occurred in the study area and each of the climatic variables impacted on the yield of the crops at different scales and level. It is therefore recommended that smart climate technologies and innovative practices for sustainability of yield of cereal crop be adopted in the face of current challenges of climate variability in the study area.

CHAPTER ONE

1.0.      INTRODUCTION

1.1.      Background to the Study

Climate is traditionally defined as the description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant atmospheric variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Climate can  thus  be  viewed  as  a synthesis  or  aggregate of weather. This  implies  that  the portrayal of the climate in a particular region must contain an analysis of mean conditions, of the seasonal cycle, of the probability of extremes such as severe frost and storms.  The World Meteorological  Organization  (WMO),  considered  thirty (30) or thirty-five (35) years as the standard number of years for carrying out the statistics used to define climate (Goose et al., 2010).

The radiation energy of the sun, and its distribution and temporal fluctuation ultimately determines the climate of a region. The long-term condition of the atmosphere is a function of a range of interrelating elements. This include; temperature, solar radiation, rainfall, air masses (wind and storms), ocean current, pressure system, humidity, topography, cloudiness and visibility (Babasubramanian, 2017).

In recent time climate variability and change have been considered to be one of the most prominent universal environmental issues. For the period 1885 to 2013, the mean temperature of the globe increased by 0.84 0C and it is predicted to also increase further by 1.5 – 5.9 0C towards the end of the twenty-first century (IPCC, 2014). Developing nations are more susceptible to such changes as they have inadequate means of adaptation to the disasters and agriculture plays central role in their national economy (Majumder et al., 2016).

Anthropogenic causes of climate variability emanating from the rise in the amount of Green House Gases (GHGs) sent to the atmosphere and inadequacy in food supply are the  major  threat  to  human  existence  in  the  twenty-  first  century.     The  Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the continuous emissions of GHGs released into the atmosphere from 1970 and 2004 contributed to the amount of the gases available in the atmosphere by 70 % (Omojolaibi, 2011). The major GHGs released into the atmosphere are Methane, Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide, Hydrofluorocarbon, Perflorocarbon and Carbon hexafluoride. Overtime Carbon dioxide continuously increased and has really contributed to over 45 % of the entire Green House Gas emissions (Odingo, 2009).

The impact of climate variability, its related vulnerabilities are emergent global concern. Climatic variability and extreme events are predicted to be on the rise in several regions and thus having substantial effects on food productions beyond the effects of changes in climatic means. This reliance is mostly critical for both food and cash crops (Akinseye et al.,  2012).

In Nigeria, Agricultural activities plays a major role in the economic growth. It employs about 75 % of rural population in different aspect of agricultural production. It is also the sector that solely contributed about 40.07 % to the Country GDP in 2009 and it has continued in that trajectory up till date (Aye & Ater, 2012).  The agriculture sector also is a pivot to the national food security by providing the highest proportion of the total national food consumption requirement. Several processing industries in Nigeria rely on the agricultural sector for their raw materials need. Conversely, agricultural productivity growth has been below expectation (Aye & Ater, 2012).

Agriculture primarily provides means of employment for most Nigerians. The sector provides more than one third of the total GDP (Kolawole & Ojo, 2007). The sector employs more than 70 % of the adult population in direct or indirect basis.  Inter- annual and  Intra-annual  climate  variability  have  increased  in  occurrence,  duration  and amplitude for the past 35 years. In recent past, there has been risen occurrences of extreme weather events such as drought, flood, risen heat waves and strong wind which have caused extensive damage to National agricultural production. (Singh & Kalra, 2016).

Cereal crops is in the family of the monocot ‗Gramineae or Poaceae‘ and they are often grown extensively to get the parts that are edible of their seeds.   These fruits are botanically  called  ‗Caryopsis‘  and  are  made  up  of  endorsperm,  brain  and  sperm (Ukwuru et al., 2018).  Cereal crops provide the main dietary energy need for body and also supply substantial quantity of protein, minerals (potassium and calcium) and vitamins (vitamin A and C) (Idem & Showemimo, 2004). Cereals are essential foods that provide a substantial amount of energy (calories) and protein in human diet worldwide. Availability of cereals  in human diet makes the nutritional qualities of cereals more vital to human health (Henry et al., 2016).

Cereals are consumed in different forms which include pastes, noodles, cakes, breads, drinks etc. in Nigeria, the rate of consumption depends on ethnicity and religion. After processing, the husk, bran, plant parts are valuable as feed for animals and in the culture of micro-organism. Gum and wax syrup are obtained from cereal crop for industrial usage. Various tribal groups in Nigeria rely on residue of cereal crops for diverse purposes (Ismaila et al., 2010)

The common cereals consumed in Nigeria are maize, rice, guinea corn, millet, wheat, pearl, fonio millet and sugarcane. The commonest of the cereal based on the level of consumption is rice. It is grown and used as ―Tuwo cinkafa, masa‖ and is also prepared according to the preference of individuals (Egwin et al., 2013). Maize crop on the other hand is a major crop utilized in various forms such as ―Ogi‖, a porridge cooked from maize fermentation. It is a common meal in Nigeria that is often used for weaning infant or as breakfast for many adults (Ismaila et al., 2010). Guinea corn is among the most widely cultivated cereal crops and accounts for 50 % of the total cereal crops produced in Nigeria. It is widely grown both for food and as a feed grain and it constitutes a major source of calories and protein for millions of people in Africa (Onogwu et al., 2018).

Ayinde et al. (2011) reported that climatic variability is driving Nigeria‘s agriculture into major hazard and stress. This means that food availability and rural livelihood is facing severe threat as production of crops takes major part of agricultural practices. It is  on  the  backdrop  of  this  that  the  present  study  assessed  the  impact  of  climate variability on yield of the selected crops in the study area.

1.2.      Statement of the Research Problem

The inter-connectivity between change in climate and agriculture are; risen average temperature, variation in the amount of rainfall, fluctuating pattern and increased concentration of atmospheric CO2, increased pollution level and variability in climate and extreme events occurrence such as flood, drought and storm. All these affects agricultural activities negatively particularly in vulnerable communities (David, 2011).

The analysed climatic data of Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) revealed that the climate in Nigeria has significant variability over the past century. (Abiodun et al., 2013). Though there is major inter‐annual variability in the climate, diverse decadal trends are evidently visible. For example, between early 1950s to the late 1960s, there was prolong wet period, followed by drought decades of the 1980s and 1970s, the obvious  reoccurrence  of  the  above  normal  wetly  conditions  in  the  1990s.  These fluctuating  climatic  conditions  underline  Nigeria‘s  susceptibility  to  the  impact  of extreme climate occurrence (Hassan et al., 2013).

Food security and crop yield are often considered to be the major factors for defining whether an individual, a household or a particular region attained food security. These pillars are impacted by the variability in climate. It was estimated that Nigeria has about 190 million inhabitants in the year 2017, the highest in African continent, nearly accounting for 48% of the whole population in Western Africa (Amaka et al., 2016). The country‘s  food  requirement  increases  as  the population  increases,  whereas  the capacity to grow food declined due to the effect of desertification, flooding and climate variability and change that is already affecting the already vulnerable resources and threatening food production. (Amaka et al., 2016).

The risen food demand is caused by increased population and industrialization. Conversely, the increased rate of consumption of food per head is a correspondingly major  contributor  to  growth  in  the  demand  of  food.  These  factors  combined  with climate variability and change compound to cause the main hindrance to food security globally (Henry et al., 2016).

Several evaluation of the impact of climate variability on crop production both at the global and local scale have been published, notable among them is the works of Aye and Ater (2012), Akintunde et al. (2013), Nwaiwu et al. (2015), Chabala et al. (2015), Wang et al. (2016), Suleiman et al. (2016), Srivastava et al. (2017), Kalu and Mbanasor (2017), Okringbo et al. (2017), Kumar and Sidana (2017), and Byakatonda et al. (2018). Previous studies on rainfall and temperature patterns in Nigeria had utilised parametric methods for example, Akinsanola and Ogunjobi (2014), Igwenagu (2015), Ogunrayi et al. (2016). The parametric methods is known to have constraints for analysing agro- climatic data as they need normally distributed data which is not usually the case for agro-climatic variables.

Though similar studies exist, but no documented evidence on how the crop yield responds when the stages of temperature and rainfall changes. The current classification of standardized extreme temperature and rainfall indicators by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has not been adopted in crops-climate variable relationship. Therefore based on the shortcoming of the earlier methods and for more efficient and effective analysis the ETCDDI method is adopted in this research work to fill this gap in knowledge.

1.3.      Justification for the Study

Impacts of climatic variability on crop yield are predicted to increase in the coming century. For instance, much of the changes in climate that will ultimately result from previous human actions have not occurred and the recent  trends in these activities signify likely high increase in global change (Steven & Stephen, 2013).

In  recent  time,  international  pressures  and  concern  have  increased  on  the  possible impact of climate variability and change on agricultural production and the environment (BNRCC, 2008; Apata et al., 2009). Furthermore, it was projected that the Nigerian food distribution will be threatened by rainfall and temperature fluctuations, particularly if the uncertainties are severe. (NEST, 2004).

Knowing the current and future climate trends, and enabling information on the likely duration and dynamics of climate variability provides opportunity for expansion of scope of knowledge on climate variable crop relationship Evidently, climatic variability has strong effect on agriculture in Nigeria, particularly, crop production. The various mitigation measures by the government have stimulated huge investment on human and material resources at Federal, State and Local levels. Despite the effort by government at all level, the impact still persists and new trend continues to manifest. The study investigated the impact of climate variability on selected cereal crops in parts of North Central States, Nigeria. It identified suitable adaptation and mitigation measured that will aid public policy and guarantee improve crop productivity in the face of changing climate.

1.4.      Scope and Limitation of the Study

The study was delimited to parts of North Central States. The study area covered Four States namely; Niger, Kogi, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. The study area lies between Latitude 70 481 N and 90 361 N and Longitude 40 321 and 80  301  E. It examined the impact of climate variability on cereal crop production (rice, maize and guinea corn). The study used climatic data and yield record of the selected crops for the period of thirty (30) years (1989 to 2018). Questionnaire and interview schedule was conducted in six adopted villages of the Agricultural Research Institutes within the study area.

The limitation of the study were inadequate funding and logistic during the field survey, high illiterate respondents and their negative attitude to questionnaire. Lack of documented evidence on indices for Relative Humidity to determine the response rate of the crops at various stages of changes in Relative Humidity was also considered as a limiting factor for this study.

1.5.      Aim and Objective of the Study

The study assessed the impact of climate variability on cereal crops  production in

North-Central States, Nigeria. The objectives were:

i.      examination of the trend and spatio-temporal variability in climatic variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) 1989 to 2018;

ii.       examination  of  the  trend  in  yield  of  the  selected  crops  (Rice,  Maize  and Guinea corn);

iii.      examination of the relationship between climatic variables and yield of the selected crops;

iv.      analysis of the effect of daily extreme climatic indices on yield of the selected crops; and

v.      identification of the mitigation and adaptation strategies to climate variability on crop yield.

1.6.      Research Questions

i.      To what extent are the climatic variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) distributed over space and time?

ii.      What are the trends in yield of the selected crops (Rice, Maize and Guinea corn)

iii.      What is the relationship between climatic variables and yield of the selected crops?

iv.      What are the effects of daily extreme climatic indices on yield of the selected crops?

v.      What  are  the  available  mitigation  and  adaptation  measures  to  climate variability on crop production?

1.7.      Study Area Description

The study area lies between Latitude 70 481 N and 90 361 N and Longitude 40 321 E and 80 301 E. It covered about seven States and the Federal capital territory.

1.7.1.   Socio economic activities of the study area

The major socio-economic activities in the study area were fishing and farming. Due to viable land, agriculture is a common source of livelihood. Also, the river Benue and river Niger cuts through this zone, as a result, fishing is possible. Inhabitants also engage in mat making, hunting, dying, weaving and trading among others. Mineral resources are also found in the region such as columbite, tin, iron ore, and gold. As a result, mining activities are carried out regularly across the zone. The north central also has several dam which are source of hydroelectric power to Nigeria (Baten, 2016).

The study area map depicting the Five study locations is presented in Figure 1.1.

1.7.2.   Climate of the study area

The study area belongs to the Guinea Savannah climatic zone of Nigeria. In this zone, the continental north wind and south west monsoon control the wet and dry period. More  often  the  dry season  is  from  December  to  March  while  the  rainy  season  is between May to October. The two seasons are mostly divided by slightly transition periods  in  April  and  November.  Although,  the  beginning  of  February  to  March represent the peak of the dry season while the rains usually climax in August. The month of November to January are characterized by cold and dry weather conditions (The harmattan) under the influence of the Northeast Trade Wind (Olayemi et al., 2014). The study area experiences moderate rainfall in most location, the mean annual rainfall is in the range of 1000-1600 mm. the probabilistic dry spell forecast by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) shows that the study area experiences moderate dry spell that usually last between 7 and 16 days. The temperature prediction by NiMet shows obvious warmer than normal temperature over most places in the study area (NiMet, 2018).

1.7.3.   Relief of the study area

The study area consists of seven States and is situated geographically in the middle belt region of the country, spanning from the west, around the confluence of the River Niger and the River Benue. The region itself is rich in natural land features, and boasts some of Nigeria‘s most exciting scenery. The region is also home to many historical and colonial relics. The Jos plateau (200-1500m) is found in the North Central Highland and it is a Hydrological centre or watershed with radial pattern of drainage in which rivers like Hadeija, Kaduna and Sokoto take their sources. The highest point of Jos plateau is the Shere Hills (1650m) (Melzian, 2012).

1.7.4.   Vegetation of the study area

The  research  area  is  situated  in  middle  belt  of  the  country  and  shares  the  same vegetation characteristics with the Guinea Savanna. This is the widest vegetation belt in Nigeria, covering about half of the country. The Guinea Savanna belt extends from the South eastern axis particularly around Enugu to the Northern part specifically towards Zaria in Kaduna State. It usually receives 6 month of rainy season around the Northern part and 8 months in the Southern axis. There is an annual rainfall range of between 1000 and 1600 mm on the average. The vegetation is often affected by human anthropogenic activities. The trees grow long tap-roots to withstand the hard condition, also the grasses have sizeable roots to survive dry season fire. Elephant grasses are commonly found with a height of around 3.6 m. The plot of the Savanna changes with the Park Savanna and borders the river bank with gallery forest. The grasses usually grow to a height that both man and animals can hide. In the first half of the dry period, the Savanna appears lifeless, the trees become bare. In the middle of the season, there is a  rise  in  smoke  screen,  burning  of  dry  grasses,  which  occurs  annually  as  land preparatory measure for crop production (Ekaete, 2017).

1.7.5.   Soil type of the study area

The classification of soils by the United Nation Food and Agriculture Organization

(FAO) simply puts the soil of the study area into two different zones. The zones include:

1.   Interior zone of lateritic soils

2.   Alluvial soils Zones

These zones occupy areas with long period of dry season with alternating wet season. They can be found in the interior part of Nigeria covering places like Niger, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Plateau, and FCT. These States specifically constitute the study area.

1.7.5.1. Interior zone of laterite soils

The laterite soil zone contains a combination of clay and sand. Because they are made up of grey clay and area poorly drained, they become liable to seasonal flooding. The soils are highly corroded, impermeable to water, compacted and have low fertility. When the un- tapped vegetation around them is cultivated it lowers the soil productivity, thereby reducing the agricultural value of the soil (FAO, 2016).

1.7.5.2. Alluvial soils

These are collections of fresh water soils of grey to white sand, grey clay and sandy clay with humid top soil. Different groups of this type of soil are composed of black saline mangrove to brownish soils, with mat of rootlets (FAO, 2016). This specific soil region  extends  from  the  coastal  inland  through  the  Niger  and  Benue  valley,  and covering the entire vegetation zone.

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