Abstract
The study examined the efficient market hypothesis and Nigerian capital market in relation to information contained in dividend and bonus issues announcement to ascertain the speed at which the market adjust to all the relevant available information on share prices of the listed firms in the main board market. To estimate the speed of adjustment of daily share prices of
33 sampled firms listed in the market in semi-strong form, market model developed by Fama (1969) is employed. From the findings, the study reveals positive and significant abnormal returns (ARs) for most of the days around the 41-days event window (-20, 0, +20). The evidence shows that share prices of main board market do not adjust quickly to dividend and bonus issues announcements thus, suggesting that the market is not efficient in semi-strong form. The study also investigated if the market anticipated the information contained in the event by examining the share price movement of the sampled firms around the estimation window. The results revealed that the abnormal returns (ARs) and average abnormal returns (AARs) of most of the days in the estimation window tend to stay significantly negative at
5% and 1% level. The significant and negative ARs and AARs that surround the estimation window implies that event actually do convey information to the market, but the market was unable to adjust quickly to the conveyed information due to the continuous drift in average abnormal returns (AARs) over the estimation window, suggesting serious anticipation of the information. The estimation of cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) around the event window to ascertain the effect of the event announcement on the firm’s values appears to be positive and statistically significant at 5% and 1% level for almost all the days. Hence, since the CAARs are different from zero, the information contained in event has no effect on the firm’s value. Further investigations were conducted to ascertain the speed of adjustment of share prices of those firms that declared simultaneously a minimum of N1.25k dividend and 1:10 bonus issues (i.e. blue-chips stock “A”), and those firms whose dividend and bonus issues declaration are less than N1.25k and 1:10 (i.e. blue-chips stock “B”). The findings suggest that share prices of blue-chips stock “A” respond to the announcements faster than share prices of blue-chips stock “B”. Hence the market remains informational inefficient. Based on the findings, share prices of main board market do not adjust speedily to incorporate both past and publicly available information contained in simultaneous dividend and bonus issues announcement. Consequently, this could increase the height of massive speculations of share prices of the firms in the main board market, information asymmetry and insider abuse, which is found to be predominant in the market. This has caused imbalance of power in transactions and sometimes makes transaction to go awry due to investor’s loss of confidence and feeling of insecurity. Therefore, the regulatory authorities should strengthen their efforts to ensure compliance to insider trading laws by setting a viable and efficient monitoring team for proper surveillance of market activities and prosecution of offenders. This could facilitate the restoration of the investors’ confidence and the stabilization of the business environment.
Chapter One:
Introduction:
1.1 Background of the Study:
Market efficient hypothesis states that market prices fully and instantaneously reflect all relevant available information in determining security prices and that it is not possible for market participants to consistently and purposefully outperform a given market using any information that is already known by the market. This implies that market efficiency is consistent with a market in which (a) there are no transactions costs in trading securities, (b) all available information is costless to all market participants, and (c) all participants in the market are rational in decision, suggesting that all agree on the implications of current information for the current price and distributions of future prices of each security (Fama, 1970). In such a market, the current price of a security obviously “fully reflects” all available information. But the speed and manner in which the market adjusts to the relevant information on dividend and bonus issues declaration, has been punctuated by untimely release of information and poor behaviour of the authorities. The excruciating influence of timidity that could emanate from insecurity of investors due to the intending insider trading and fall in investors’ confidence, deters trading activities and the performance of the market (Manasseh, Asogwa and Agu, 2012). As the major ingredient needed to step up business activities in the market, consolidating business confidence could promote the ability of the market in mobilising the needed savings for investment. Therefore, to harness funds from local and foreign investors for viable investment opportunities, the need for information efficient market should be given precedence for the enhancement and restoration of depleted trust in the market (Manasseh et.al, 2012).
In information efficient market, prices of shares adjusts quickly to new information and enable more informed and efficient investment choices (Osinubi, 2000). In such markets, investors do not care about various trading strategies by fundamentalists, technicalist or chartists to beat the market with the bid of earning abnormal returns. But in the Nigeria capital market, the case is the reverse. In most cases, investors pay extra money to acquire additional information and sometimes go as far as sourcing for insider information on the values of companies listed with the exchange. So far, before certain information is announced, some investors have already traded on the information, causing disparities in available information among market
participants. For instance, on June 3rd 2005, Intercontinental Bank Plc, acquired by Access Bank
Plc in 2011, announced bonus issues of 1 for every 10 shares simultaneously with the declaration of N0.22 dividend for its shareholders. On this note, it was expected that the market should have reflected the publicly available information on bonus issues and dividend without bias to avoid
the possibility of investors beating the market by making abnormal profit. But it was noticed that people started trading on the shares of this firm five days before the announcement date. Five days before the event date, the share price of the Bank stood at N7.81, N7.81, N7.81, N6.90, and N6.90 respectively even higher than the share price of the firm on the day of the announcement (N6.24). After the announcement date, it fell to N5.93, N5.64, N5.36, N5.10 and N5.13 respectively (NSE, various years).
Similarly, on 3rd August, 2007; 25th July, 2008; 31st October, 2008 and 15th August, 2008, it was also observed that shares of Zenith Bank Plc, Floor Mills Plc, Union Bank Plc and Union Homes Savings Plc respectively were seriously traded five days before the date of announcement on simultaneous declaration of bonus issues and dividend leading to a fall in share prices of these firms on and after the announcement date (NSE, various years). Thus, disproportions in the information available to equity issuers or investors could results to overpricing or under pricing of shares (Edmans, 2009; Ayadi and Bouri, 2009 and Gao, 2008). When a share is overpriced or underpriced as a result of insider information, the level of confidence in the market would be deterred and the returns of the firms would be affected. In turn, the contributions of the firms to all share indexes and the market capitalisation would be insignificant. This is because, Investors who are always risk averse could withdraw their money or invest it in other less productive ventures, leaving the market performance gauges in a shamble state (George and Oseni, 2012). Hence, the efficiency of the Nigerian capital market in terms of quick incorporation of all available information correctly and instantaneously is of paramount important. So, when new information is added to the market, its revaluation implications on security returns are impounded in the current market price unbiased (Gagan and Mahendru, 2009). In such markets, firms make productive investment decision while investors choose among the securities that represent ownership of firms’ activities without the anxiety of making losses (Afego, 2012).
It should be noted that access to investment capital, through well functioning capital markets, is crucial for growth and development particularly in capital-scarce developing countries like Nigeria. Capital markets facilitate the pricing and diversification of risk, aid in the price- discovery process of financial assets and enhance the operations of the domestic financial system (Afego, 2012). By mobilising savings from surplus spending economic units to the deficit spending units, an efficient capital market provides avenues for effective and optimal utilisation of funds for long-term investment purposes. In addition, it encourages the inflow of foreign capital by creating a platform for foreign companies or investors to invest in domestic securities;
provide needed seed money for capital development; and act as a reliable medium for broadening the ownership base of family-owned and dominated firms (Afego, 2012).
Be that as it may, to tap from the benefits inherent in efficient capital market, the need to promote the Nigerian capital market to a higher level of sophistication to meet the G-30 recommendation for emerging markets become important. However, the market authorities have shown much concern in the restoration of depleted investor’s confidence and expansion of capital market activities across the country to boost the liquidity and to reduce the transaction cost in the market. As a result, from 1993 till date, the Nigerian capital market has gone through different phases of reforms. This has led to the abrogation of laws that constrained foreign participation in 1995; replacement of call over system with automated trading system (ATS) in
1999 to enable simultaneous online trading in all branches of the Nigerian stock exchange; the implementation of full remote trading project under which dealing members could trade online at the comfort of their offices in different parts of the country. Other reforms include the introduction of the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) to clear and settle transactions within three days (T+3) as against T + 14 which is in consonance with the G-30 recommendation; the establishment of Desk for phone-in-service where an investor can phone in and obtain on the spot stock balance; introduction of trade alert; Capital Trade Points (CTPs) by creating mini stock through which small companies can get listed and avail themselves the opportunities offered by the market, and the establishment of Investment Security Act (ISA) to prosecute all manner of unacceptable behaviours and the insider abuse (NSE, 2004 and NSE factbook, various years). In addition, in 2012, exchange traded fund (ETF) was introduced to avail investors the benefits of low costs and tax efficiency. This is followed by the introduction of market-making, by authorizing some dealers in the market to trade a stated security on its own account at any time at the quoted price.
To strengthen the newly introduced practices by Nigerian stock exchange (NSE) and security and exchange commission (SEC) in order to promote the efficiency of the Nigerian capital market, the federal government of Nigeria came up with idea of reinstating deteriorated investors confidence to abate the perverted act in the market. To this, many institutional reforms was initiated to promote transparency and accountability in the market. Among others, this includes the enforcement of strict regulations to guide business activities and to combat high level of corruption in the market. For instance, in 2000, the federal government of Nigeria established the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Crimes Commission (ICPC) to investigate
reports on corruption and in appropriate cases prosecute the offenders. In 2003, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was established as a law enforcement agency to investigate financial crimes and money laundering. In addition, in June 2009, the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) was also established. The commission works with other international bodies such as the United Nations Committee on Anti-Corruption (UNCAC), Transparency International and the African Union (AU) Convention against Corruption to control and prevent money laundering and terrorist financing. Hence, in 2010, Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) was established to address the problem of non-performing loans in the Nigerian banking industry, along with Consumer and Financial Protection Division to provide a platform through which investors/consumers can seek redress (NEED, 2004 and ICPC, 2003). Also, the articulation of a blue print known as “The Project Alpha Initiative” was launched to remove the inherent weaknesses and fragmentation in the Nigerian financial system.
In view of these recent developments, accompanied with pre and post bank consolidation policy reforms in 2004 and 2006 respectively to avoid persistence occurrence of bank liquidation and loss of depositors’ fund, the Nigerian Capital Market recorded a dramatic upward trend in its performance indices. In light of the discussed best practices and newly introduced regulations, between 1992 and 2002, the Nigeria Capital Market recorded an average total market capitalisation of N305.63 billion. In 2005, market capitalisation exceeded N2.5 trillion with more than N2 billion worth of total shares traded (Agu and Manasseh, 2012). Two years later, these indices maintained a steady trend on the increasing lane up to 2007 when market capitalization and values of shares traded reached a peak of about N13.295 trillion and N2.1 trillion respectively. In 2009, due to the global economic financial crisis, it fell from its previous value of N10.3 trillion in 2008 to N7.03 trillion. It appreciated to N9.92 trillion in 2010 and finally drops at N6.54 trillion in 2011 (NSE factbook, various years; Manasseh et.al, 2012; and Agu and Manasseh, 2012). More so, in December 2012, the market capitalisation slightly appreciated to N8.98 trillion with total market value of N658.22 billion and 255 listed securities as against 250 listed securities in 2011. However, even though the market have not fared well in its performance compared to other emerging market due to some challenges earlier mentioned, considering the recent improvement such as the elimination of value-added taxes (VAT), stamp duties on all capital market transactions, N22.60 billion debt relief package on the margin loan of
84 brokerage firms and investors protection initiative (NSE, 2013), it is therefore pertinent to assess the efficiency of the market in incorporating publicly available information on share
prices so as to add to the already existing debate on the nature of efficiency of the Nigerian capital market.
1.2 Statement of the Problem:
The ability of the Nigerian Capital Market in performing the role of mobilising and allocating long term funds, through the issuance and trading of financial instruments has been unsatisfactory. Poor regulatory framework and insider trading have further made the market more vulnerable. Uneven supervision and poor enforcement of rules and regulations in the market have worsened the rate of information disclosure about the financial position of listed firms in the market which seems to be a key factor for the investors and the market in particular. These unhealthy situations, affected the movement of share prices of many listed firms. Thus, due to the ugly trend, investors lost confidence in the market, causing a fall in the market activities (Manasseh, et.al 2012).
In addition, share price fluctuations have been linked to speculative motive and insider abuse found to be common practice in the market. Obviously, share prices of many firms rise or fall during and after declaration of dividend and bonus issues to the public. Normally, higher dividend and bonus issues declaration indicate sound management and strong financial stability of firms. In like manner, share prices of firms with large declaration of bonuses and dividend, sometimes referred to as blue-chip is expected to be higher in any trading day than penny stock whose dividend and bonus issues are usually small. But in most cases, people expectation don’t follow the trend of the market due to insider information abuse, corruption, massive pursuit of self interest by authorities and price ceiling introduced by the Nigerian stock exchange (Manasseh et.al, 2012).
The impositions of 5% cap on share price movement on any trading day limit the amount by which a share can change a day. Invariably, no matter how big firms’ profits or losses are in any particular time, the prices of their shares around announcement cannot rise or fall beyond a specified limit (Oludoyi, 1998). Therefore, firms perceived as financially stable, whose share prices should have risen during or before announcement were constraint. And this has affected investors believe that shares of firms whose bonuses and dividend declarations are large, always appreciated. Because, the propelling force (i.e. share prices) that signals the relative attractiveness and yield to investors is abated. Hence, the effectiveness of share prices as a good measure of firms’ performance in the market is jeopardised and share prices as an index of performance of various listed firms in the market, whose shares are traded become muted.
Despite the inherent restrictions on share price movement of listed firms in the market, it has always been a tradition in Nigeria for most of the investors to trade on shares even before the declarations of dividend and bonus issues to the public due to high rate of insider information that perpetuate insider trading. As illustrated in figure 1.2.1 below, it is obvious that shares of companies such as Zenith Bank, Floor Mills (Fmill), 7-Up and Union Bank of Nigeria (UBN) among other, was seriously traded three days even before the declaration of bonus and dividend on Day 0. Amidst the investors expectation on the likelihood of share price increase which could result from insider information on huge profit declaration by the listed firms. As a result of the information linkage, three days before (Day -3) the day of announcement (Day 0), share prices of Zenith, Floor Mills, 7-Up and UBN were N66.67, N69.1, N47.9 and N34.73 but fell to N63.00, N61.95, N40.84 and N25.56 three days after the day of announcement (Day +3).
Figure 1.2.1: Share Prices Movement Before, During and After Announcement:
On 6th June, 2008, Julius Berger Nigeria Plc (Jberg) announced simultaneously, the payment of N5.00 dividend and bonus issues of 3 shares for every 1 share held (i.e. 3:1) to the public. As good news, it was expected that the share price of the company would rise on or after the event date but was discovered to remain what it was two days even before the event date (i.e. N114.60). Similarly, on 1st July, 2005, Prestige Assurance Nigeria Plc also declared simultaneously, the payment of N11.46 dividend and bonus issues of 1 share for every 2 shares
held (i.e. 1:2) to the public. Moreso, a look at the favourable announcement presented in the appendix 5, show with great expectations that the share price of the company will rise on or after the event date. Contrarily, it was observed that the price of the company’s share on the day of the announcement was N2.65 below the share prices of the company two days before the announcement (N2.81, N2.67). However, two days after the event date, the company’s share price (N2.52, N2.57) was below its price on the event date (SEC, 2011).
The unguarded movement of share prices has caused so much deviation from investor’s expectations that information released always results to appreciation or depreciation of share prices. Hence, this deviation with loss of investor’s confidence and feelings of insecurity in the market has brought a big fall in trading activities in the market, leaving the market performance indicators in a tardy state. This was perpetuated by unwholesome practices of some listed companies in the market. Between 2006 and 2008 the Nigerian capital market was seen by investors as a market for short term investments. Investors embarked on unwary short term treasure hunting binge. At a time, many investors discarded their normal business with particular emphasis on short-term speculative activities of buying and selling equities. This scourge continued to the extent that some Nigeria banks financed about 65% of transactions in the market through margin facilities granted to investors and stock broking firms (Olisaemeka, 2009).
However, as a result, just like individual and institutional investors, many banks dived into unworthy and unethical activities prevalent in the capital market with little or no attention to the primary function of providing credit to the real sector (Olisaemeka, 2009 and Nwude, 2012). It was estimated that the total exposure of banks to the capital market in terms of trapped funds was in excess of N1 trillion. Following the trapped banks’ funds, the banks became strict on the investors and stock broking firms who borrowed from them for share acquisition, forcing them to sell their shares which further increased the supply of shares at ridiculous prices without a corresponding increase in demand, leading to crash in share prices (Olisaemeka, 2009).
Consequently, this lured investors to dispose their shares in the secondary market, purchase the private placement and dispose of same immediately after their listing on the Stock Exchange at higher prices. The Nigerian capital market thus became a battleground as private firms were falling on each other through many of such offers even when many of the firms remained unquoted (Okereke-Onyiuke, 2009 and Nwude, 2012). Hence, the perpetuation of these unpleasant practices and unguarded price movements lead to increase in share prices of many listed firms in the exchange. This caused massive withdrawal of investment by risk-averse
investors. For example, between 2002 and 2011, out of 59 delisted firms, seven of these firms such as Impresit Bakolori (2002); CFOA Nigeria (2007); Nigerian Textile Mills (2008); INCAR (2010); Nigerian Bottling Company (2011); NAMPAK (2011); and United Nigeria Textile (2011) were voluntarily delisted from the Nigerian stock exchange (Nwachukwu, 2013). Since the delisting, many of these firms have closed down their businesses which lead to the crash in share prices of the respective firms and the dumping of shares beyond the ability of domestic investors. Even though the supply of shares of these firms was far below the corresponding demand, investors were not motivated to trade on them because of their expectation of further crash.
Following the loss investor’s confidence and the insecurity perverted with high level of corruption, the market has not been impressive in its performance and contribution to growth as shown in figure 1.2.2 below. However, prior to the significant record of N13.295 trillion market capitalisation in 2007, the Nigerian capital market has been seen as inefficient. For instance, by December ending, 2008, the market recorded 78 stocks price appreciations, 111 stocks price declines whereas the prices of 24 stocks remained constant. Consequently, 66, 371.20 all share
index recorded on March 5th of the same year dropped by 45.8% (26,539.44) points to close at
31,450.78 points, which is a reversal of the record-setting growth of 74.73% recorded in 2007 which finally closed at 57,990.22 points (Olisaemeka, 2009). In addition, second week of January, 2009, the market slowed down at less than N4.6 trillion. In the same year, investors lost market value of N1.481 trillion while N7.03 trillion market capitalisation of the 202 equities traded declined by 17%.
Figure 1.2.2: Market Capitalisation as % of GDP:
Similarly, on 25th January 2011, the market recorded a wholesome of N8.885 trillion market capitalisation, closing at N8.538 trillion with 0.1% (N11 billion) lost in February. Then in December ending 2011, it crashed at N6.54 trillion, sapping a total sum of about N3.38 trillion (NSE factbook, various years and Nwude, 2012). As the panic increased in the market, the downturn in the global economy orchestrated capital flight from the market as most foreign investors sought to make up for the deficits in more favourable markets (Olisaemeka, 2009). Hence, considering the important of Nigerian capital market in raising funds for investment in the economy, the questions that need to be asked and answered is: Is the Nigerian capital market efficient enough to incorporate all the relevant publicly available information on share prices? In view of the above question, it is pertinent to conduct a comprehensive research to examine the speed at which share prices adjust to relevant information such as simultaneous announcement on dividend and bonus issues. Therefore, enhanced efficiency of the Nigerian capital market is a requisite condition for the reinstatement of the diminished investor’s confidence and to attract both local and foreign investors into the market. Also, it could enrich the available policy options for policy makers. The following research questions are then formulated to guide the study.
1.3 Research Questions:
1. What is the behaviour of share prices before, during and after the announcement of dividend and bonus issues?
2. Does the market anticipate the information contained in the announcement?
3. What effect does the dividend and bonus issues announcement have on the firms’ values
around the event window?
1.4 Objective of the Study:
The broad objective of the study is to examine the efficiency of Nigerian capital market at the semi-strong form using simultaneous announcement of dividend and bonus issues as the relevant information set. Specifically, the study intends:
1. To estimate the behaviour of share prices before, during and after the announcement of dividend and bonus issues.
2. To investigate whether the market anticipates the information contained in the dividend and bonus issues announcement.
3. To examine the effect of dividend and bonus issues announcement on the firm’s values around the event window.
1.5 Hypotheses of the Study:
The null hypotheses of the study are as follows;
H01 The Nigerian capital market does not adjust quickly, before, during and after the announcement of dividend and bonus issues.
H02 The market does not anticipate the information contained in the announcement.
H03 The dividend and bonus issues announcement does not have any significant effect on the firm’s values around the event window.
1.6 Scope of the Study:
Since the study seeks to assess the response of share prices of main board/first-tier market to simultaneous dividend and bonus issue announcements, it covers only those firms or company’s equities that are consistently listed in the Nigerian stock exchange market for the period of the study (i.e. 2005 to 2011). These firms must have issued bonus and declared dividend simultaneously to their shareholders during the periods under study. The study is extended to investigate share price movement of Blue-Chips firms in the Nigerian capital market, relative to dividend and bonus issues announcement. Thus, the variables of interest include closing price of shares of sampled firms, dates of simultaneous dividend and bonus issues announcement of the firms and Nigerian stock exchange index (NSEI) or all share index (ASI). However, the aim of the study is not to investigate if share price of individual firms fully reflect publicly available information but to observe the ability of the main board/first-tier market in its entirety, to fully reflect publicly available information contained in the event. Out of the 95 firms that declared simultaneous dividend and bonus issues to the public within the periods of the study, only thirty three (33) firms with fifty (50) announcement dates were selected. The selection is based on the study’s events specification. Hence, firms whose transaction fell within the specification (-100,
0, +20) were selected.
It should be noted that dividend is of two types; cash and stock dividend. The study focuses on cash dividends and bonus issues as the event for the study. Hence, the study is not interested in firms that have no simultaneous offer of cash dividend and bonus issues to their shareholders even if listed in main board/first-tier market of the exchange. Above all, there are many existing market instruments such as government bonds, corporate bonds, Preference stock, equities, debentures and derivatives like options and futures, REITS and Exchange traded funds. The study focused on firms’ equities only. In addition, primary market where new issues are undertaken is not covered. Since the study is an investigation on the behaviour of share prices
before, during and after event announcements, hence the choice of secondary market becomes the only option. This is because secondary market is only where existing shares are traded.
1.7 Justification of the Study:
The underlying reasons behind this study lies on the recent development in Nigerian economy and the ongoing institutional, financial and capital market reforms. Against the background, the introductions of some of the G-30 recommended practices for emerging markets in Nigeria such as the replacement of call over system with automated trading system (ATS) and central securities clearing and settlement system (CSCS) among others, to clear and settle transactions on a cycle of T+3 basis as against T + 14, for the reinstatement of the abated confidence and to reduce the level of corruption in the market.
In addition, most of the previous studies laid emphasis on the firms listed in both first and second-tier market with single event information (e.g. earning or merging and acquisition announcement among others) and concluded that the Nigerian capital market is not efficient in semi-strong form. This may be erroneous because main board/first-tier market shares are consistently traded unlike shares of alternative security/second-tier market sometimes referred to as thin shares. Thus, merging the two markets may affect efficiency test outcomes. Also, reviewed studies on semi-strong form do not investigate price reactions of blue-chips firms whose shares are more valuable than the others to ascertain the speed of adjustment of their respective share prices. Hence, this is to improve the knowledge on share price movement of those blue-chip firms that declared simultaneously high dividend and bonus issues, and those whose dividend and bonus issues declaration are low. The understanding of whether share prices of firms listed in main board market fully and instantaneously reflect all publicly available information before, during and after such as dividend and bonus issues announcement without biased will be of enormous benefits to policy markers, researchers, academic and capital market authorities such as Nigerian stock exchange (NSE), security exchange commission (SEC) and central bank of Nigeria (CBN) in policy formulations. Furthermore, the knowledge on the efficiency of the main board market, as the market where the major transactions takes place may improve the market discipline and the level of confidence and enhances growth and development in the capital market and the economy in general.
Finally, the study would also be useful in formulating effective policies that could help to foster equitable information dissemination which is of paramount importance to investors. It will further contribute to the debate on whether the Nigerian capital market is efficient in semi-strong
form or not. This will awaken the interest of researchers on the tiers of the market to investigate the reaction of the market on events such as merger and acquisition, stock split and other issues like reshuffling of board of directors other than dividend and bonus issues in weak form, semi- strong form or strong form.
This material content is developed to serve as a GUIDE for students to conduct academic research
EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS (EMH) AND NIGERIAN CAPITAL MARKET AN ANALYSIS OF BONUS ISSUES AND DIVIDED ANNOUCEMENT.
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