ABSTRACT
Crop yield apart from being a source of boost to the economy of a nation, improves the quality of life and aids in the sustenance of human existence. There is therefore the need to investigate the effect of rainfall variability on yield of selected crops in Benue State. Both secondary and primary sources of data collection were employed in the study. CMAP Rainfall data was collected using orbiting satellite image for the period of 30 years from 1988 to 2017 over Benue State. While the crops yield data was collected for 30 years from the archives of Benue State Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (BNARDA). Data from Primary sources were collected with the aid of questionnaire administered to 720 farmers selected through a multi stage sampling technique which saw twelve out of the twenty-three (23) Local Government Areas selected based on the high yield of the crops under study. Each selected LGA was further divided into six (6) extension blocks where the productivity of selected crop yields under study are at maximum, which make a total of 36 extension blocks. Four (4) farming communities were randomly selected from each extension blocks to bring a total of 72 communities. Ten (10) farmers were randomly selected which resulted to a sample size of seven hundred and twenty (720) farmers. That is, 240 questionnaires were being administered from each zone and 60 from each LGA respectively. Descriptive statistics was used to analyse the data and results were presented using frequency tables, charts and figures. Coefficient of variation and Precipitation Variability Index (PVI) were used to determine the rainfall variability. Mann- Kendall test was used to assess the trend of selected crops. Rainfall data from 1988 to 2017 was used to analyse the indices of rainfall (onset, cessation and length of rainy season) and also to determine the effects of onset and cessation on crops yield in Benue. Partial correlation was used to determine the magnitude of zonal rainfall variability. The results of the research show that, precipitation variability index revealed tendency of drought especially the Northern Zone of the State by more than 30% variability followed by the South with variability of 20% to 30% and the East zone with less than 20% variability. Onset of rain begins in the South on the 4th April, followed by the East on the 6th April and on the 9th April for the North. The cessation dates are between 6th October and 17th November across the study areas. The Length of Rainy Season (LRS) is longer in the Eastern Zone (236 days), followed by the Southern Zone (230 days) and then Northern Zone (209 days). It was revealed that the yields of selected crop (cassava, yam, maize, soyabeans and groundnut) show a positive trend while that of rice on the other hand, shows a negative trend over time. In all 73 % of respondents are aware of rainfall variability and have attempted adapting in one way or the other and 69% affirmed that the method used increased yield. So, it can therefore be concluded based on the findings of the study that, rainfall commences early in the Southern Zone, followed by the Eastern Zone and then the Northern Zone. The onset of rain is similar in all the Zones and crop yields are increasing due to choices for adaptation. The study therefore recommends that other elements of climate such as temperature, relative humidity, and farm management practices should be studied to find the impact of such oncrop yield. There is also need for the intensifying effort towards irrigation farming in order to curtail the uncertainty attached to rain- fed agriculture. Annual sensitization workshops and seminars should be encouraged for farmers, to create awareness among them on climate and its potential impact on crop yield. More extension workers should be deployed in the State owing to their importance to rural farmers. Farmer’s adaptation measures (Changes in planting date and used of improved varieties) to rainfall variability in the State should be harnessed for proper results.
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
Rainfall variability has become a topical concern largely because of its impacts on natural and human systems. Labiru (2016), noted that the most often cited areas that are affected by rainfall variability include, agriculture, fisheries, hydrology and forestry. Rainfall Variability is defined as the degree to which rainfall amounts vary across an area or through time. Agriculture which is one of the major areas of socio- economic as well as National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in most countries in Africa is more vulnerable to rainfall variability. Despite the recent technological advancement, weather and climate are imperative determinants in agricultural production. The long- term crisis between farmers and herders mostly in the north- central part of the country is primarily attributed to change in climate and the variability of rainfall. This is because northern the parts of Nigeria are getting drier, and herders have to move down South in search of greener pasture. On the other hand, farmers need to expand on their farm size to maximize higher yield due to the danger posed by climate change.
Rainfall is considered as the leading climatic factor that has effects on crop productivity. Variability of rainfall is progressively becoming a thing of concern, most especially in the agricultural rain- fed places of the world; because of its distributions, pattern and seasonality. In areas where rain-fed agriculture is being practised, the erratic nature of water and its irregularities in both the amount received and its spread, remains a major threat to agricultural production as yields are increasingly becoming poorer and there is high variability in yearly crop production (Agidi, 2014).Therefore, the unpredictable pattern of the onset of rainfall onset, cessationand length of growing season in a location can negatively affect the farmers in an area that depends on rainfall for their farming activities(Agidi, 2017). In Nigeria, rainfall variability affects the rain-fed agriculture in which many of the population depend. In this region, crop loses their viability, and the farmers lost their income source. The reason for crop yield decline may be due to inter- annual variation. The annual variation of rainfall, particularly in northern Nigeria, is large, often resulting in climate hazards, especially floods and droughts with devastating effects on food production and associated calamities and sufferings (Osman, 2015). Despite the great potentials of Nigeria in crop production, the frequent occurrence of drought occasioned by erratic rainfall distribution and/or cessation of rain during the growing season, is the greatest hindrance to increasing production and this is more serious in the northern part of the country where most of the tubers are produced.
Nonetheless, to relate rainfall variability with actual crop yield, model-based simulations are not sufficient. Modelling offers a mechanism to integrate many scales of data developed in/for agricultural research. Surprisingly, little systematic research have focused on the distribution patterns of the impacts of rainfall variability in mapping the spatio-temporal impact using modern equipment. There is no doubt that farmers and Agricultural Agencies increasingly need detailed maps of the Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) to plan crop planting schemes and monitor yield rates (Labiru, 2016). Study of the impact of annual rainfall variability begins by mapping out direct physical consequences of rainfall variables on crop yields. Generally, the scientific evidence on rainfall variability and its significant impacts on crop yield, is stronger than ever (Hare, 2010). One undisputable cause of ‘famine’ in the Guinean Savanna region of Nigeria, is the failure of crops resulting from insufficient or untimely rainfall. Inter- Governmental Panel on Climate Change (2012), has studied the inter-annual pattern in climate and particularly the magnitude of rainfall variability impacts on human activities, including crop production. For example, Adamgbe and Ujoh (2012), observed that over the period 1997 to 1999, the north arid zone of Nigeria experienced a decline in annual rainfall which led to a decline in crops- based farming systems. The zonal pattern of rainfall variability, especially in the North Central area of Nigeria, is noted in the differences in the types of crops cultivated and the yield rate (Idris et al., 2012).
Studies on annual rainfall variability and the impact on crop yield, used model-based simulations in their analysis. Despite sufficient rain, its irregularity can affect yields adversely if rains fail to arrive during the actual growing stage of crops (Hassan, 2013). According to Odewumi (2013), it is clear that, of the climatic factors which influence the pattern and productivity of rainfed agriculture in Nigeria, the availability of water to crops is by far the most important. Generally, based on rainfall distribution, certain crops are found at a particular geographical location. Odjugo (2013) pointed out that the pattern of rainfall distribution explains why drought resistant crops such as millet and sorghum are grown largely in the Northern part while more moisture- demanding crops such as rice, maize, and cassava are grown in the North Central areas of Nigeria extensively. To date, much of the effort to analyse rainfall patterns in Nigeria as relate to agriculture, has generally focused on the exploitation of the seasonal rainfall (Yamusa et al.,2013). However, the season distribution of rainfall and its subsequent effects on crop productivity has received less attention, although its effects may be as important as the total seasonal rainfall. To better understand the issue of rainfall availability in tropical rain- fed agriculture, much more attention needs to be given to the quantification of season rainfall patterns (Yamusa et al., 2013). This will allow a prior assessment of the expected severity and duration of dry spells during the season and provide a sounder basis for developing improved water management techniques in tropical agriculture. Most farmers in developing countries solely depend on traditional farming methods, which place them at a disadvantage with many alterations in nature. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2012) observed that, the increasing temperature, erratic rains, drought, floods, desertification, and other weather extremes have a severe effect on agriculture, especially in the developing world. This explains why most developing countries cannot predict and swiftly act in terms of extreme weather hazards. Cassava and yam, (tuber crops), rice and maize (cereal crops), groundnut, and soybeans (legume crops) are considered as the most important food crops in Benue State that are useful for food as well as income to the populace.
1.2 Statement of the Research Problem
Over the years, despite the technological advances to crop production in Benue State, such as the introduction of high yield crops, the application of fertiliser, and provision of extension services, the yield of crops still varies in different parts of Benue State. This results in the hunger and starvation of people who solely depend on these crops for their socio- economic activities. Igwebuike et al. (2014), noted that climate prediction and analysis of past and present trends indicate that small- scale farming households in tropical and sub- tropical areas are exposed to increased climate risk and become more and more vulnerable to these risks resulting in the decline of crop yields. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC, 2012), noted that yield from rain-fed agriculture in different African countries could be reduced by up to 50 % by the year 2020. Agidi (2017), noted that the inter-annual rainfall variability and crop yields in Nasarawa State, have resulted in the decline of crop yields due to variability of rainfall pattern. Akpenpuun (2013) observed that the relationship between tuber crop yield variations in Kwara State to climate variation. Emmanuel and Fanan (2013), noted that rainfall is highly variable in Makurdi and maize yield. He revealed that changes in onset and cessation are the main reason for maize yield decline in Makurdi. Nyagba (2013) showed a comparative analysis of the distribution of rainy days in different ecological zones in Benue State. The analysis was based on monthly and annual (yearly) rainfall data from a single ground station, which may not be a true reflection of different zones. Therefore, the current study will depend on one single station data and will use daily rainfall data with the use (Connectivity Merged Analysis of Precipitation) CMAP data. This data is considered more accurate hence it has more spread over the state than the single ground station and also is an improvement on the Akpenpuun (2013) where he researched in just one Local Government Area of Benue State using maize yield as it varies with rainfall. Though studies were carried out based on the relationship that exists between crop and the variability of climate in Nigeria and beyond, there is little or no research that tried to combined different important crops like tubers (cassava, yam), cereals (maize, rice), and legumes (soybeans, groundnut) in Benue State.
Therefore, the current study was able to look into such crops in their respective zones. Hassan (2013) using monthly and annual rainfall characteristics to determine the precipitation periodicity index, revealed that even though rainfall has been declining in Federal Capital Territory between 1990 -2005, crop yields have not declined. This may be because of farmer’s adaptation techniques which this study wants to investigate. It is against this background that this research seeks to assess the effect of rainfall variability on crop yield in parts of Benue State.
1.3 Research Questions
i. What is the variability in rainfall in the study area?
ii. What is the trend in the yields of cassava, yam, maize, rice, soybeans, and groundnut in the study area?
iii. What are the effects of rainfall characteristics on the yield of crops in the study areas?
iv. What is the spread of crops in the study area?
v. What are the farmer’s coping strategies to rainfall variability in the study area?
1.4 Aim and Objectives of the Study
The aim of the study is to assess the effects of rainfall variability on the yields of selected crops in Benue State, Nigeria.
The specific objectives were to:
i. Examine rainfall variability in the study area from 1988 to 2017
ii. Assess the trend in the yield of the selected crops in the study area.
iii. Analyse rainfall characteristics and their effects on the yield of the selected crops in the study area.
iv. To delineate agro-climatic zones for effective utilisation of the limited agriculturallands in the study area.
v. Identifythe adaptation strategies of farmers to rainfall variabilityin the study area.
1.5 Research Hypotheses
i. There is no significant relationship between rainfall trendsand the yield of some major crops in the study area.
ii. There is no significant relationship between rainfall variability and the yield of some major crops in the study area.
1.6 Justification for the Study
Rainfall variables play a major role in crop production, most especially in tropical regions. Yahaya (2011) cited that despite the influence of climatic factors easily recognised in crop yields, there is generally too little information on rainfall pattern influencing crop yields in the tropics. The situation is particularly serious in Nigeria despite the increasing attention being given to agricultural activities. Farming inBenue State is mainly rain-fed, making crop production more sustainable to any form of weather. Rain- fed agricultural production in Africa in general, is projected to be reduced by up to 50 % by 2020 (IPCC, 2012). Ityo(2013),noted that the variable rainfall pattern has serious repercussions for the inhabitants seriously truncates all efforts being put in place by both individuals, local, state and federal governments to ensure agricultural viability, abundant food supply and food security in the state. As a result, “the food basket of the nation” status is gradually dwindling largely due to the variable weather. Previous studies on rainfall pattern and crop yields in the State were based on some rainfall characteristics such as duration and season, annual amount, monthly and temperature (Ityo, 2013).
Though these studies were comprehensive, the analysis of important rainfall characteristics dates of onset, cessation, length of rainy days and daily rainfall vital to crops are been discussed in this current study. Therefore,this study focuses on examining the rainfallvariability and its effect on crop yields as well as having the critical stakeholder (farmers) involved, to examine their knowledge of climate variability and the strategies used in parts of Benue State with a view to suggesting appropriate adaptive management mechanisms to cope with the pattern of rainfall variability.
1.7 Scope of the Study
This research work was conducted in Benue State, Nigeria. The research focus areas comprisetwelve out of the twenty three Local Government Areas in the State, four Local Government Areas from each Zones where agricultural activities are maximum. The zones include the Northern Zone (Ushongo, Vandeikya, Ukum and Kwande), Eastern Zone (Gboko, Gwer- West, Makurdi and Tarka) and Southern Zone (Gwer- East, Ado Ohimini and Otukpo). The data on crop yields were obtained from the Benue State Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (BNARDA). The Rainfall data was based on CMAP data version from1988 to 2017 across the twelve LGAs under study. Crop yields are the harvested production per unit of harvested area for crop products. In most cases, yield data are not recorded, but are obtained by dividing the yields data by the data on the area harvested. Crop production is measured in tones per hectare, in thousand hectares and thousand tones.
1.8 The Study Area
Benue State lies within the Lower River Benue trough in the North Central Zone of Nigeria. Its geographic coordinates are Latitude 6° 25′ to 8° 8′ North and Longitude 7° 47′ to 10° 0′ East. The State shares boundaries with five other states, namely: Nasarawa State to the north, Taraba State to the east, Cross-River State to the south, Enugu State to the south- west and Kogi State to the South East. The state has a total land area of 30,800 sq. km (National Population Commission, 2006). The total population is estimated to be 4,253,641 (National Population Commission, 2006). The State generally has about 5-7 months of rainfall. Temperatures are constantly high throughout the year, with average temperatures ranging from 23°C-32°C (Ityo, 2013).
1.8.1 Population structure and distribution of the study area
The State has a total population of 3,870,476 (National Population Commission, 2006) with an average population density of 99 persons persq.km. This makes Benue the 14th most populous State in Nigeria (Nyagba, 2013). In the 2012 Census the population increased to 4,253,641 which marked Benue State as the ninth ranking populated State in Nigeria. There are highpopulation densities in LGA in the State such as Guma, Gwer, Ohimini, KatsinaAla, Apa, Logo and Agatu, each with less than seventy persons per sq. km. While Vandeikya, Okpokwu, Ogbadibo, Obi and Gboko have densities ranging from 140 persons to 200 persons per square kilometer. Makurdi with its restricted coverage around the ‘ town has over 380 people per square kilometer.
1.8.2 Climate of the study area
The climate brings both positive and negative consequences to human existence and activities. Regional analysis of climate has helped tremendously in planning agricultural activities in various regions where such studies were carried out. There are different elements of climate but this study was focus only on rainfall.
1.8.2.1 Rainfall of the study area
Precipitation in Benue State like elsewhere in the tropics, consists entirely of rainfall, it is the most variable element of tropical climate. Due to its varied nature, rainfall has been greatly used in the delimitation of climate regions in the tropics, and since other climatic elements are uniform, rainfall is particularly important to agriculture, because agricultural practices are mostly rain-fed (Hassan, 2013). Variation in rainfall characteristics has a significant effect, particularly on rain-fed agriculture in Benue State (Binbol, 2014).
Rainfall occurrence in Benue State is frontal, orographic, and convectional rainfall, although the frontal and convectional rainfall is mostly predominant. Frontal rainfall occurs when two contrasting air masses, dry continental air mass (cT) and the moist,humid marine air mass (mT) come into contact. The point where the two air masses meet is the Inter- Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) if they meet on the sea and Inter- Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) if they meet on land. Binbol (2014), noted that in the case of Benue State, rainfall occurrence by November through January, the ITD is at its most Southerly position in the country, thus, the entire State shall be under the influence of harmattan winds, which are dry, cold and dusty winds.
Binbol (2014), noted that as the ITD continues it northward movement at a speed of 160km per month, the lines are at the southern part of Benue State by March. By April it would have moved 110N, therefore, subjecting the whole State under the influence of the moist maritime air mass. The early rains in the State are characterised by a thunder storm and a squally activity is as well noticeable when the rain is receding. The mean annual rainfall across the State is between 1400mm and 150mm, with the highest in August of about 1560mm and the lowest in October of about 328mm. The rapid decrease in the monthly rainfall is attributed to the rapid retreating of the ITD at a speed of 320km per month as against 160km for the South North movement (Ayoade,2003).
Benue State has a tropical sub- humid climate, with two distinct seasons the wet season and dry season. The wet season last for seven months between April and October, while the dry season is between November and March (Nigeria Meteorological Agency, 2005). The mean length of the rainy days varies in different parts of the State, for instance, places in the Western and Eastern areas including Otukpo and Katsina-Ala have the highest mean Length of Rainy days of about 240 and 241, respectively. While the Central part includes, Ushongo, Aliade and Gboko which have the Mean length of rainy days of 238 and 239 while the remaining areas are below237 as shown in Figure 1.4.
1.8.2.2 Temperature of the study area
Temperatures are generally very high during the day, particularly in March and April. Benue State records the average maximum and minimum daily temperatures of 350c and 210c in the rainy season and 370c and 160c in the dry season,respectively (NIMET, 2016). A maximum is reached in March when the temperature can be as high as 390c. On the other hand Minimum temperatures in the State can drop to as low as 170c in December and January (Binbol, 2014). There is a spatial variation in temperature distribution over the State. Mean monthly temperature ranges between 26.80c in the southern part to about 27.90c in the northern part of the State (NIMET, 2016). The temperature in Benue State is generally high, partly because of its location in the tropical sub-humid climatic belt and the high radiation income in this part of the globe, which is evenly distributed throughout the year (Binbol,2014). There is a gradual increase in temperature from January to March; the onset of rains in April brings a noticeable decline in Temperature. November and December periods also witness a decline in temperature due to harmattan wind. Two main factors strongly influence temperature patterns in the tropics in which the study area lies, and these are cloud cover and elevation. The cloud covers is less or completely absent during the dry season, hence the high temperatures at this time of the year. As a result of differences in elevation between the north and south, the latter has higher temperatures throughout the year than the former.
1.8.3 Geomorphology and geology of the study area
Much of Benue’s areas fall within the Benue Valley/trough,this is believed to be structurally developed. During the Tertiary and possibly the interglacial periods of the Quaternary glaciations, the Benue and Niger Valleys, otherwise known as the Niger/Benue trough, were transgressed by the waters of the Atlantic Ocean(Agidi, 2017).These sediments have undergone varying degrees of metamorphism. These sedimentary materials are underlained at variable depth by basement complex rocks. In the Southern areas such as Ado, Ogbadibo, and Okpokwu, the metasediments may be more than 20m thick. Benue State geology can, therefore, be broad meta-sediments occurring in more than 7.5 per cent of the state, associated with the Benue trough. Basement complex rocks occurring higher ground further away, particular in Kwande and the eastern part of the meta-sediments, are dominantly sandstone and contain shale, siltstone, limestone and quartzite. On the flood plains of the Benue are KatsinaAla Rivers and other smaller rivers, alluvial deposits, comprising an assortment of clays, sand, gravels, and pebbles, overlie the met sediments and form the superficial geology. Phonolite, trachyte, and various types of pyroclastic materials (pummic, bomb lapilli) on the surface. In Benue State, these volcanic materials are well represented in Guma aroundGbajimba. These volcanoes are thought to be responsible for some economic mineral formations, including the salt springs. Basement complex rocks comprising ancient igneous and metamorphic rocks occur mainly in Kwande and the eastern part of Oju. The materials also outcrop in widely scattered locations as upland residuals, such as inselbergs, knolls and ruwares and underlie all of the metasediments. The basement rocks are dominated by porphyritic granites, migmatites, diorites, pegmatites, and gneisses. In much of Benue State, both the tertiary sedimentary rocks and the basement complex have been deeply weathered to produce regolith and saprolite several metres deep. These rocks are rich in solid minerals, such as limestone, baryte, coal, gypsum, salt, shales, silica, sand, and kaolin which are currently being mined.
1.8.4 Relief and drainage of the study area
The land is generally low-lying (averaging 100m – 250m) and gently undulating with occasional inselbergs, knolls, ruwares laterite capped mesas, and buttes. It is only at the boundary area with the Cameroun Republic in Kwande and Oju areas that hilly terrain with appreciable local relief. Here, the terrain is characterised by steep slopes, deeply incised valleys, and generally rugged relief. Elsewhere, such areas are made up of interfluves, broad open valleys, and flood plains. River Benue is the dominant geographical feature in the state (Agidi, 2017).It is one of the few large rivers Nigeria not plagued with waterfalls and rapids. The KatsinaAla is the largest tributary, while the smaller rivers include Mkomon, Amile, Duru, LokoKonshisha, Kpa, Okpokwu, Mu, Be, Aya, ApaOgede and Ombi. The flood plains, which are characterised by extensive swamps and ponds, are good for dry season irrigated farming. Elsewhere surface drainage is generally good. Though Benue State has a high drainage density, many of the streams are seasonal. Also, the permanent water table in many parts of the state is very low, due to thick overlying permeable metasediments and the great depth to which weathering has reached. Hence, there is an acute water shortage in the dry season in s such as Guma, Okpokwu, Ogbadibo, Gwer -West, and Oju.
1.8.5 Soils of the study area
The soils in Benue State are mainly oxisols and ultisols (tropical ferruginous), which vary over space concerning texture, drainage, gravel content, etc. A typical profile is highly weathered with sandy surface layer overlying mottled clay subsoil. In the southern part of the state, around Vandeikya, Oju, Obi, Otukpo, and Ogbadibo, the soils developed from lateritic profiles with pallid zones. The agronomic significance of this subsoil crust is that it often produces a perched water table which is an important source of capillary water, which keeps the surface moist long after the end of the rainy season (Nyagba, 2013).
Entisols and inceptisols also occur associated with young soils on hill slopes and recent alluvium on flood plains. Around Gbajimba in Guma , Eutrophic Brown Earths occur associated with the volcanic parent materials. Sheet erosion is the dominant form of water erosion in the State. Deep gullies occur in Ogbadibo and represent a northern extension of the eastern Nigerian, meta-sedimentary deepgully system. Other gulled areas in the state include Makurdi North Bank area, TseMker, and Gbem in Vandeikya ,Gbajimba town, stream bank erosion in Gboko town, incised streams on sloppy ground coterminous to Anwase Kyogen Abande ranges in Kwande .
1.8.6 Vegetation of the study area
Benue lies in the southern Guinea Savannah of Nigeria. Persistent clearance of the vegetation has led to the regrowth vegetation at various levels of seral development and more importantly, parklands with grasses ideal for animal grazing during their early growth. These succulent grasses can be cut with machinery, dried, and baled for dry season livestock feeding.The grasses, however, grow very tall, coarse, and tough on maturity (Nyagba, 2013). The scattered trees are mainly of economic value and include locust bean, shear butter, mango, silk cotton, African iron, Isoberlina, cashew, oil palm, Oliveri, and gmelina. These trees produce valuable fruits, wood, and fibre which can be utilised for small- scale cottage industries. In the southern part of the State, particularly in Oju, Ado, Obi, Ogbadibo and Okpokwu, the vegetation is mainly oil palm bush. The oil palm is utilised for palm oil, palm kernel, palm wine, broom sticks, and several other products. Dense forests are few and far apart, except in a few such as Vandeikya, Kwande, and Okpokwu. Generally, forest vegetation may be grouped into: village forests, gallery forests, and forest reserves. In these forests, typical rain forest trees such as mahogany, Obeche, and Iroko are used for timber. Other economic trees in these forests include African pear, ogbono, bamboo, raffia palm, oil palm, orange, and coconut.
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EFFECT OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON YIELD OF SELECTED CROPS IN BENUE STATE, NIGERIA>
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