APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY IN ANALYSING URBAN DENSIFICATION AND HOUSING MARKET IN BIDA, NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

Urban densification is as a result of increase in the level of urbanisation of a limited area which causes challenges in the housing affordability due to the increase in price of houses, high rental values, high demand and shortage in supply to meet the need of the urban residence. This study examines urban densification as an element of urban growth and how it can provide extra spatial information in explaining the variance of housing market of Bida with specific emphasis on its prevailing submarkets. Census sampling techniques was adopted in sampling all 31,410 buildings, 46,489 buildings and 47,394 buildings for the years 2008, 2013 and 2018 respectively and also 138 houses managed by the 3 registered estate firms in Bida. Data were collected using Google Earth to capture satellite imageries for the years 2008, 2013 and 2018 using maximum resolutions while handheld GPS was used to take coordinates of rental houses managed by registered estate surveyors and valuers. Onscreen digitization was conducted where Point Density spatial analysis and Ordinary Kriging (OK) was used to analyse residential density and rental prices respectively, while machine learning approach using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was adopted to analyse and forecast residential density and housing prices with the aid of Map Algebra tool in ArcGIS. It was found out amongst others that the pattern of densification process is in line with urban economic theory for monocentric open cities and that OK model disconfirmed Alonso’s monocentric theory. The ANN model revealed that residential densities increase shall continue along the urban – rural gradient thereby causing a transition of open spaces and low density areas in to medium and high density areas in the coming years maintaining its monocentricity, while rental prices of housing apartments shall continue to decreases with decreasing distance to the city centre. It was therefore recommended amongst others that there is the need for rational densification for urban development in order check the increasing residential density that reduces green and open spaces.

CHAPTER ONE

1.0       INTRODUCTION

1.1       Background to the Study

Growing urban population pose a challenge to many cities around the world. The world’s urban population has soared from 2.6 billion (45 % of the whole) in 1995 to 3.9 billion (54 %) in 2014 (Asian Development Bank, 2012; Asian Development Bank, 2015). With over 50% of the world’s population residing in urban centres now, it is expected that future growth in the global population would be absorbed by the urban areas in four decades to come (UN-Habitat, 2013). There are rapid expansion of urban populations in West Africa. In the subregion, cities will accommodate an additional fifty-eight million and some other sixty-nine million at some stage in the 2020/30 decade. Despite the decline in the projected urbanisation growth rate after 2030 there is no hope for decline in the demographic increase of urban areas, there is need for cities in the subregion to accommodate additional seventy-nine million until 2040, and between 2040 and 2050 they will need to accommodate another eighty-four million (UN-Habitat, 2010).

With unprecedented rates of urban population expansion since 1996, it is perhaps not a surprise that the housing supply of many cities are falling (Asian Development Bank, 2012; Asian Development Bank, 2015). Estimate by UN-Habitat shows that there are eight hundred and eighty-one million people currently dwelling in slums in the cities of the developing world compared to seven hundred and ninety-two in the year 2000. By 2025, adequate and affordable housing will be likely be required by another 1.6 billion. This is, however, a wake-up call to authorities, advising them to take action resolutely to allow all urban residents to have access to housing (UN-Habitat, 2015). Nigeria’s urban population was estimated to be 44% in the year 2005 with an annual growth rate of 3.7% (United Nations, 2009) and increased to 48% in the year 2014 with a 4.7% annual growth rate (United Nations, 2014). As rapid urban agglomeration is experienced globally, building additional living apartments has to be complemented by urban gentrification and densification actions (Lin et al., 2015).

Urban densification is the increase in urbanisation level of a limited area, which could have an adverse effect on the biodiversity of its green spaces by destroying the habitats and soil temperature increase or pollutions (Vergnes et al., 2014). Urban densification causes a lot of challenges to cities ranging from decline in housing affordability, pressure on infrastructure and difficulties of city management. Urban densification has a consequential effect on affordable housing and may cause change in the housing market. As a result of change in the housing market the entire city or national economy would experience shift either negatively or positively (Gulyani et al., 2018).

The housing market is very imperative because of the place it holds in the economy (Seo, 2008). Housing construction easily contributes to gross domestic product and its market has a direct impact on the national economy (Hu et al., 2013). Housing is a special kind of commodity which is fixed (Renigier-Biłozor et al., 2017). Consequently, the location of the house is very imperative, since this feature is unchangeable (Cichociński & Dąbrowski, 2013). Housing has demonstrated its importance to the broader economy during the global financial crisis of 2007 – 2011, which has its roots in the United States housing market as its contribution to the national GDP fall during the period. Information on trends in housing prices is therefore essential to the governments, market participants and central banks (Hill & Scholz, 2017). Although, several factors determine housing prices (Xiao, 2017a).

The degree to which internal and external factors affect house prices varied over space. There are so many number of factors (internal & external) that inflate housing price in a particular location (Wang et al., 2017; Tupenaite et al., 2017; Liu & Li, 2018). It is important to talk about housing price changes issues. For instance, an increase in asset values (creates positive equity) can lead to the withdrawal of housing equity and confidence increase. In its place, decreasing house prices lowers the equity which could lead to equity downside risk, especially for new housing developers, which could give consumers a bad impression and likely reduce household spending. House price changes also have a direct impact on wealth distribution in the economy. When prices rise rapidly, property owners enjoy an increase in wealth relative to accommodation renting persons (Zmölnig et al., 2015).

Housing prices within an urban area are influenced by various housing characteristics or urban morphology such as location, environmental and neighbourhood characteristics (Saether, 2008) most especially urban densification. These housing characteristics and urban morphology together with the power of demand and supply further subdivide the housing market into a series of submarkets (Wu & Sharma, 2012). The housing submarket can be identified by its spatial requirements and non-spatial requirements (Xiao, 2017b). Spatial requirements stresses a predefined geographic area while non-spatial requirements emphasizes on housing types, estimations and socioeconomic structure of the housing occupants. Substantially, house prediction models accuracy have increase by submarket divisions, which provide better house price forecast. Useful insights are also provided on different aspects of housing which add value to the housing market (Wu & Sharma, 2012).

In Bida urban area, just like other urban areas of the developing world most especially Nigerian  urban  areas  is  characterised  with  rapid  urban  growth  which  is  largely uncontrolled and increased urban densification most especially in the central areas of the town. Urban densification in Bida is largely in terms of housing and population densities. As the population increases, the building development increases and causes conversion in the use of structure. For example, special structures are converted to residential units or industrial buildings converted to commercial uses; green spaces developed, low rise buildings converted to high rise structures and river banks and flood plains developed to increase housing stock. This increase in the housing and population densities may have a direct or indirect impact on the housing market structure, most especially, the housing submarket.

1.2       Statement of the Research Problem

Access to adequate, affordable and quality housing is among the current and growing problem in developing countries (UN-Habitat, 2011). Nigeria’s housing problems are muti-dimensional just like in many developing nations. The population explosion problem, shortage of basic infrastructure that can enhance living standard and urban drift have aggrevated problems of housing for many years (Mohammed & Aremu, 2017). Larger percentage of Nigeria’s urban dwellers do not have access to basic needs which requires critical attention to be addressed. One of the central issues in the housing sector of Nigeria is that there are distinctions in housing in terms of price and quantity on one hand and the people who have the ability to pay these prices on the other hand (Adedeji & Olotuah, 2012).

Housing affordability can be determine by the cost at which houses reach the market. Where the cost of housing unit is very high, few people would be able to afford it. In the Nigeria housing sector, there is a very wide gap between income and housing market. With this, the  low-income earners are pushed out of the housing market (Adedeji & Olotuah, 2012). However, one of the major challenges that hinder the progress is urban densification.

Urban densification is as a result of increasing urbanisation level of a limited area resulting to challenges in housing affordability due to the increase in the price of houses, high rental values, high demand and shortage in supply to meet the need of the urban residence.

Bida is experiencing urban densification which has attracted people from different parts of the country which has consequently led to an increase in housing demand. The intensity of housing demand in the city has also resulted in increased house rents.

However, there is a large body of literature on housing market (Leung, 2004; Wu et al., 2014; Muehlenbachs et al., 2015; Yang et al., 2017; Tupenaite et al., 2017; Zhou, 2018; Cameron, 2018; Cheung et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018). For example, Xiao (2012) studied urban morphology and housing market with emphasis on street network pattern, where street pattern is a fundamental determinant of house prices and street network pattern influences accessibility. Wang et al. (2018) analyses the spatial patterns and driving forces of Chinese housing prices where various theoretical dimensions on housing supply, demand and market, are viewed as determinants of a housing price model to examine the effect of prices of land on hosing prices. These authors did not consider housing submarket in their respective studies.

Available literature on housing submarket (for example, Royuela & Vargas, 2007; Park, 2013; Manganelli et al., 2014), very little is written on delineation of housing market (for example, Wu & Sharma, 2012; Manganelli et al., 2014). Wu & Sharma (2012) classified housing submarket by developing a spatially constrained data-driven methodology to segment the housing market. Specifically, the model based on cluster analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was developed for housing submarket delineation. The model constitutes a number of locational attributes which were used for PCA, and also the incorporation of spatial locations of the houses into the cluster analysis. Manganelli et al. (2014)   adopted Geographically Weighted Regression in analysing housing market, in order to identify homogeneous areas and to define housing submarkets. The researchers focus on the spatial specification of housing submarket delineation and ignoring the non-spatial specifications. This has been criticised by Xiao (2012) for making scientific research complex and not simply replicable.

Studies of urban morphology (densification specifically) in relation to the housing market are not common because of the rare robust approach to measure the urban form accurately (Xiao, 2017b). In this context, this dissertation employs conventional methods such as Convolutional Neural Network, hedonic and spatial analysis methods to analyse urban density and housing market. By doing so, it attempts to contribute significantly to urban scholarship by exploring how measured residential density related to several issues in the housing market, particularly the housing submarket.

Much has not been done on how to delineate submarkets in housing markets of the developing world, most especially Nigeria urban areas, where typology of buildings in several fast-growing urban areas are simple structures and informal. This is the case in Bida town. It is on this basis this research intends to fill another gap in the literature by delineating the Bida housing submarket and demarcating it using both spatial and non- spatial specifications.

1.3       Research Questions

i.      What pattern revealed by the residential density of housing submarkets in the study area?

ii.      How are the space and time variations in residential density of the study area between the years 2008 – 2018?

iii.      What are the extents of spatial and temporal changes in the housing market of the study area between the years 2008 – 2018?

iv.      To what extents does residential density have relationship with the rental value?

1.4       Aim and Objectives of the Study

This research shall seek to apply Geographic Information System  (GIS) technology to analyse urban densification and housing market of Bida and as well, assess the pattern in urban densification and housing market of Bida for ten years.

The objectives set for the study are to:

i.      Examine residential density pattern of the housing submarkets in the study area.

ii.     Examine spatiotemporal variations in residential density of the study area between the years 2008 – 2018.

iii.    Examine the spatiotemporal dynamics in Bida housing market between the years 2008 – 2018.

iv.    Develop a model to predict and analyse the relationship between residential density and rental value.

1.5       Justification of the Study

Location is emphasised by both the monocentric and polycentric economic models, suggesting that growing distance to the CBD causes a decrease in the housing prices, but studies in the recent times show that people do not prefer their housing location in accordance to the minimum travel cost or distance cover to reach their workplace and that work has significantly dispersed within urban areas, therefore, the CBD and distance to it becomes insignificant (Xiao, 2012; Xiao, 2017b). There are many literatures on housing market where few captured urban forms and housing market. However, little has been done on urban densification and the housing market.

Also, this study is of paramount importance because urban densification has either negative or positive impacts on the housing sector, most especially the housing market. The housing market, therefore, depends on the facilities, economy, beliefs, culture, demography, services and policies within the neighborhood to which it operates. It can, therefore, be stated that the outcome of this research work would be beneficial, which shall focus on developing a methodology aimed at ensuring a sustainable housing market aimed at providing affordable housing alongside proffering solutions to ailing consequences of urban densification in Bida.

The investigation will contribute to the existing body of knowledge in terms of:

i.      Bridging the gap in understanding the urban housing market and submarkets as it associates with both residential choices and spatial information

ii.      Helping urban planners and urban managers differentiate between economic and social classes and they respond to affordable housing

iii.       Helping urban planners and authorities to efficiently solve the problem of spatial growth and management and

iv.      Assisting in the assessment of housing values to evaluate planning regulations and urban land-use policies.

1.6       Scope of the Study

This study shall identify and evaluate the nature of urban densification and housing market of Bida. It shall also compare the level of disparity in urban densification in terms of building density and  housing market  in order to assess housing affordability of residence in Bida. The study areas would be divided into various segments (submarket) according to their housing market structure. The pattern in urban densification and housing market shall be investigated within a decade range on an annual basis i.e. year 2008 – 2018.

The study area shall cover the entire Bida town to its extent as of 2018. This research shall also consider the positions of the traditional wall as the boundary for the core neighbourhoods of the town as the area is almost completely developed and homogenous in nature.

However, in terms of variable, the study will cover; satellite images of the study area between years 2008 to 2018, overall residential area between years 2008 to 2018, changes in the residential area between years 2008 to 2018, type of residential rented housing in major residential neighbourhoods of study area, number, and type of rental housing apartments managed by registered estate surveyors in the major residential neighbourhoods of the study area, rental value of different type of residential houses in the major residential neighbourhoods of study area, existing classification of residential neighbourhoods by registered estate firms, number and type of rental housing apartments managed by estate management firms in Bida, the annual rent of housing apartments in Bida between years 2008 to 2018 and coordinates of sample rental housing apartments in Bida.

1.7       Limitations

This research work focused on urban densification of and housing market of Bida. However, data needed for the study is the rental values of residential apartments and location of buildings in the study area. This research work would have been more accurate if there is Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) where data related to houses and densities would have been kept and managed. This research, therefore, generates its data from satellite imageries of Bida.

1.8       Study Area

1.8.1    Location

Bida the area of study is a traditional, modern and heterogeneous society and a Local Government headquarters in Niger state, a north central town in Nigeria, as well as the traditional headquarters of Nupe Kingdom (Yahaya, 2002; Ononogbo, 2014). Bida is one of the largest settlements and it is next to Minna which is the largest settlement in Niger state and located in southern region of the state. It is also located on the A124 regional highway linking Minna to Ilorin and Abuja (Mahmud & Umaru, 2018). Bida Local Government Area has about 1.698 km2  area and a population of 266,008 (National Population  Commission, 2006).  Bida town  lies  on  latitude 9°5’30” – 9°2’07″N and longitude 5º58’30”- 6°3’0″E. As a traditional headquarters, Bida is led by Etsu Nupe whose leadership extends to other districts namely, Mokwa, Lemu, Enagi, Katcha, Kutigi, Baddeggi, and others. A major ethnic group in the town is Nupe with other tribes like Hausa, Fulani, Yoruba, Igbo, and others (Yahaya, 2002). Activities like traditional brass and copper goblets, crafts and other metal products, raffia and mats, glass beads and bangles, silk cloth and locally dyed cotton is what the town is well known for (Alarimaet al., 2012). Durbar festival is another feature that the town is also known for (Max Lock, 1980). There are two polytechnics in Bida (Federal Polytechnic Bida and a campus of Niger State Polytechnic), there are also one secondary and tertiary health institutions in the town (Umaru Sanda General Hospital and Federal Medical Centre). Others includes security and military institutions (police station and army barrack), primary and secondary schools both public and private, television house (Nigeria Television Authority – NTA), commercials banks, Nigeri Telecommunications (NITEL), Nigeria Postal Service (NIPOST), restaurants and eateries, hotels and two major markets (Ononogbo, 2014).

1.8.2    Physical characteristics

There are two distinct climatic seasons in Bida in a year (dry and rainy seasons). Rainfall is experienced between April and November with peak in June/July. About 122.7mm annual average rainfall is recorded annually with highest of 226mm – 300mm recorded in July (Debaniyu, 2013). In the dry season, the town experience cold harmattan wind and south west wind which is the hottest between month of March and April, prior to another rainy season. The town experience highest temperature in March with about 37.1oc. Bida being a hot town but mainly have moderate climatic conditions in most part of the year. As a result of the climate being the tropical in nature, the sunshine duration ranges between eight-ten hours a day and ranging from about 30°c – 3 7.0°c yearly where in March temperature is at peak. However, the marked increase in cloud cover during July, August, and September makes the hours of sunshine per day, drop sharply to an average of about four hours (MaxLock, 1980). The beginning of rains starts from mid April and ends around mid October to early November. Consequently, there is variation in the rainy season duration which ranges from around 190 days to 240 days amounting to annual mean rainfall approximately 1,650mm per annum. The beginning and the end of the season, there is frequent incidences of rain storms. In this weather condition, there are cloud cover on daily basis for several weeks. It is accompanied by lightning and thunder, characterised with strong winds and high intensity rainfall (MaxLock, 1980).

Another feature of the rainfall is its mean monthly distribution. There is a very high concentration of rainfall in July, August and September during which about 57 percent of the annual rainfall of the town is experienced. The feature also shows a sharp drop in the rainfall received after these three months (MaxLock, 1980).

The humidity of the town rises everywhere during the rainy season and falls inseparably during the dry season within the town. In the afternoon relative humidity of the town, cloud rise above 60 percent during the rainy season and fall to as 30 percent during the dry season (MaxLock, 1980).

The Nupes live within the low basin formed by the two valleys of Rivers Niger and Kaduna. The area is surrounded by hills and and forms a valley, a few 3 to 4 kilometers west of the prevailing built-up region. Occasional little steep hills rise between 20m to 25m  above  the  sea  level  and  the  nicely-tired  gutter  slopping  between  the  valley. The  metropolis  is  drained  with  the  aid  of  Landzu  streams  which  go  with  the flow   transversely  the   coronary  centre   of   the   city  characterised   with   seasonal tributaries  which can be gully routes today (Ononogbo, 2014).

Bida is located in the Nupe sandstone formation with a complicated basement. the previous is fabricated from surf stones, sandy cemented or clays coarse sands, and the soil supersede dense sandstone and the predominant components encompass the mild undulating plains and of a very deep soils (MaxLock, 1980).

The town lies in the vegetational region of Guinea savannah. The sector is characterised predominantly through grassland with bushes and shrubs scattered anywhere. Urbanization and expanded human activities and ecological foot prints have greatly altered the herbal nearby flora in a few components of Bida. The mostly timber plantation in Bida include Mangifera indica (mangoes, Azadirata indica (neem tree), shear butter tree and Parkia Filhu(Golden locust bean timber), among others (MaxLock, 1980).

The dominant soil types found in Bida include combisols and to some extent, lithosol in the upper slopes of the interfluves of Bida and luvisols are the major soil type found on the foot slope plains (American Public Health Association, 1916). The luvisols are made from downwash from the hills and that they develop on those foot plains, interfluves is associated with the soil which can be an aspect of the landscape which can be constantly been eroded by means of sheet-wash and streams from the hills. The individual of this soil kind varies as among top, middle and decrease slopes (MaxLock, 1980).

Though Bida lies near the northern boundary of Nigeria’s southern guinea savanna, the major types of vegetation are forest and savanna (Asaolu, 2002). Riparian vegetation complex is the type of forest found in Bida and it consists of a complex of varying floristic composition and physiognomy. Consequently, there are units in the complex that can be characterized as high forest, while others are no more than woodland  and thickets (MaxLock, 1980).

The Riparian high forest that is similar in physiognomy to the rain forest is sometimes continuous, has the following oil palm tree (Elaes guineesis), Afzelia Africana and Terminally laxiflora found within it. On the other hand, the Riparian complex that can be described as thickets and woodlands are relatively of lows stature. Furthermore, a few tall elements may be found as emergent, with high trees and contious vegetal cover form by the forest or woodlands. Examples of the more frequent species in this variant of the Riparian vegetation are Mitrgyna inermis, Alchnea cordifolia, Allophyllus Africana, Anogeissus leiocarpus and Borassue aethiopium (MaxLock, 1980).

Savanna woodlands are another type of vegetation found around Bida. They are the most luxuriant and are fire tolerant. They include ground vegetation dominated by grasses and also a continuous canopy, the trunk becomes more prominent and a large number of shrubs however exist between the trunks and also grasses are dominant on the floor in herb layer in which other herbs are important. (Bansal et al 1999). Common species in the savanna woodland include Afzelia Africana, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Bulyrospermum paradoxium, Danieiia Oliveri, Khyya senegalensis (Mohagany), Prosopis Africana etc. (MaxLock, 1980).

1.8.3    Land Use and Human Activities

Bida structure consist of various components such as traditional city wall, physical land use pattern, housing, and other human activities (Ndaguye, 1982). Majority of residential areas in the traditional core parts of the town are based on occupational, kinship, cultural and ethnic structures to enhance either the continuity of a trade, be a protector or be protected (Ndaguye, 1982)

The built-up area of Bida as of 2014 was over 3.150 hectares (Niger State Ministry of Lands and Housing, 2018). Almost the entire traditional part of the town is high density in terms of human population and housing development. The annexing areas are also becoming excessive in density, where new layout are not strictly followed. The urban expansion (outside the city gate) which is usually a low development region is becoming highly developed with number people migrating to town and increase in human activities in the town.

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