AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN TARABA STATE, NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

The study examined the climate change (climate change extreme events and  household climate change adaptation practice) effects on the food security status of the households in Taraba State Nigeria. The primary data used in this work was collected using a random sampling  selection  of  three  (3)  agricultural  zones,  5   local  government  areas,  10 communities,  and  120  respondents  from  the  sample  frame.  The  3  agricultural  zones selected   were   zing,   Bali,   and   Wukari.   Five   (5)   local   government   areas   were proportionately selected from the 3 zones viz: Jalingo, Lau, Wukari, Kurumi and Bali. Data  was  collected  using  an  interview  schedule.  Information  were  collected  on  the household socio economic characteristics, the climate change extreme event happenings in  the  area,  the  household  adaptation  practices  of  the  area,  food  security,  and  food insecurity coping strategies of the households. The analytical tools employed in analyzing the  data  were  descriptive  and  inferential    statistics,  simple  and  multiple  correlation, multiple regression, Rasch model,  percentages, mean, graphs, likert scale rating. Results showed  that   households  in Taraba were faced with the problems  of  climate extreme events, and the households are making conscious efforts to adapt to  the shocks of this events, mostly by using ecological adaptation  and storage.  The  Rasch model analysis showed that majority of the households  (77.85%) were food insecure with severe hunger, 20.4% were food insecure  with moderate  hunger,  and only 1.9% were food  insecure without hunger   but no household was found to be food secure in the  study area. The regression results showed that food insecurity increases with  increase in the household experience of the extreme events. Events like heat wave, harmattan, pests and diseases, and drying up of streams and rivers were considered by the households  as having serious impact on food security and this was confirmed by the regression result which showed that these events significantly affected food  security of the households.   The study also found out that the more adaptation strategies practiced by the households the more food secure  they  were.  Market  exchange  and  diversification  classes  of  adaptation  had  an inverse relationship with food insecurity. Majority of the households (87%) relied on less preferred and less expensive foods as their food insecurity coping strategies. Only 17.6% employed  sending  household  members  to  beg.  The  socio  economic  factor  that  had negative  effect  on  the  household  food  security  were,  having  children  in  the  home, household  size,  and  having  a  civil  servant  as  the  head  of  the  household.  Rate  of adaptation  practices  of the  household  and  income  had  a  positive  effect  on the  food security of the household.   Good weather forecast system was  recommended  and that government should make effort to enlighten their citizens on the dangers of these extreme event and proffer ways of improving the environment. People should be encouraged to embrace market exchange and diversification as a means of adapting to climate change as this will increase their resilience and reduce their vulnerability.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Information

Over one billion people experience  the hardship  that hunger  imposes,  a figure  which continues to rise even amidst the riches of the 21st century. Entrenched within a vortex of population growth, economic instability and climate change, food security has become an urgent challenge for national and global governance (Oxfam, 2010).

Food security is a situation wherein all people at all times have, economical and physical access to safe, sufficient quantity and quality,  nutritious food   (Food and  Agricultural Organisation (FAO), 2008) and alsothe ability to utilse the food. “The  inability to acquire or consume an adequate quality or sufficient quantity of food in socially acceptable ways, or the uncertainty that one will be able to do so by all households” is the definition given to  food  insecurity  by  the  US  (Food  and  Nutrition  Technical  Assistance  (FANTA) (FANTA, 2011). From the above definitions and with the aid of the U.S. food security scale, households are  placed into four basic categories according to their responses to the questions on the Food Security Module: food secure, food insecure without hunger, food insecure with moderate hunger, and food insecure with severe hunger.

Agriculture contributes  to national food security by helping to maintain a healthy  and peaceful  population.  It  has also  been a source  of food  and  nutrition  for  households.

Agriculture is critical to the West Africa sub region economy (Agwu, Amadu,  Morlai, Wollor, and  Cegbe, 2011). The world average contribution of the agriculture sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is only 4.5%, but the sector’s contribution is about 30% in West Africa. In this region also above 65% of the population lives  in the rural area, and about 90% of the rural population directly depends on rainfed agriculture for income and food security. Therefore reduced rainfall as predicted by various climate models translates to threat to livelihood of the population and the economy of the sub-region (Agwu, et al., 2011).

Agricultural productivity and food security is affected by a number of factors including: amount and quality of inputs, human ability or expertise  in  implementing technology (human capital),  price of crops, the time elapsed  after  the  establishment  of the farm, environmental factors (climate) and agricultural policies (Adeniyi, Ogunsola, Nymphas, and Oladiran, 2009). When all these factors are favourable, bountiful crop and animal productivity  is assured.  Good  control of  all these factors  except  the climate,  and the thorough understanding of it can take the nation to food security level (David and Tim, 2000).  According  to  Adeniyi  et  al.  (2009),  the  ways  of  controlling  the  variables (technological  input, capital, government policies) include improvement  on the quality and amount of technological input in the form of major agricultural research efforts, and robust  governance  and  capital  by  providing  fund  for  research,  training,  educating farmers, and increasing farmers access to credit.

Climate  change  is  a  statistically  significant  variations  in  climate  that  persist  for  an extended  period,  typically  decades  or longer  (International  Panel  on Climate  Change (IPCC), 2001). According to the IPCC (1990, 1992), it seems clear that any significant change in climate on a global scale impacts local agriculture,  and  therefore affect the world’s food supply. It is important to note, however, that the development of agriculture is necessary to ensure that more food is produced and made available to non-producers at reasonable prices (Adeniyi et al., 2009).

The  socio-economic  impacts  of  climate  change  result  in  decline  in  yield,    reduced marginal   GDP   from   agriculture,   fluctuation   in  world   market   price,   changes   in geographical distribution of trade regime, increased number of people at risk of hunger and food insecurity, migration and civil unrest (Enete and Amusa 2011; khanal, 2009). There are over 140 million people in Nigeria, with about 38 million being farmers on 71.2 million hectares cultivable land (Adeniyi et al., 2009).  The present agricultural growth rate of Nigeria as reported by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture is 4.5% which is below the rate (at least 10%) that could be sufficient  for the population  changing roles and responsibilities of key actors (Adeniyi et al. 2009). So looking at the above statistics, with no consideration to climate and seasonality, it should not be a difficult task for Nigeria to ensure access by all the  people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life. According to FAO report (2010), food security is a fundamental agricultural objective in Nigeria; – households should have access to good and nutritious food for healthy living and, population should be healthy to create national wealth.

According to Adeniyi, et al. (2009), food production in sub-Saharan Africa is  climate dependent; therefore in Nigeria crops are planted according to the seasons  of the year, when enough moisture is available to sustain plant growth and maximum yield. In 2009 Famine Early Warning  System Network  (FEWS NET) observed  that there  were  crop faliure in few areas, and in a few other areas of Nigeria yields were poor compared to expected  results, this they said was as a result of erratic rainfall that  characterized  the agricultural season. In sub Sahara Africa rainfall is the main source of water for crops and pasture therefore, there is a direct and almost linear  relationship  between actual water

consumption and plant production (Adeniyi et al. 2009; Agwu et al. 2011; FEWS NET, 2008).

According  to  Pinstrup-Andersen  (2003),  the  world  food  problem  now  and  in  the foreseeable future is not one of global shortage. Instead, the world is faced  with three main food-related  challenges: widespread  hunger  and malnutrition,  mismanagement  of natural resources in food production, and obesity. The other challenge is to assure that everyone has access to sufficient food to live a healthy and productive life. Elimination of food insecurity,  hunger and malnutrition,  in a  manner  consistent  with an ecologically sustainable  management  of natural  resources,  is of critical  importance.  Food  security should be achieved in an environmental sustainable manner, because there seems to be a nexus between  poverty,  food  insecurity  and  environmental  degradation  (Swilling  and Annecke, 2012)

Although there has been progress in the last twenty years, the future of food security is not bright.  At the  World  Food  Summit  in 1996,  policy makers  from  more than 180 countries agreed to the goal of reducing the number of food-insecure people by half, to

400 million, between 1990 and 2015. At the follow-up Summit in 2002, the same goal was   reaffirmed.  Unfortunately,  action does not seem  to  equal the agreement  (FAO, 2010). In the 1990s, less than one third of the countries managed to reduce the number of food-insecure  people,  while  one half is still experiencing  an increase,  (Adeniyi  et al. 2009).

Climate change has been known to effect food security in diverse ways by affecting the food  security  indices  i.e  availability,  accessibility,  stability  and  utilization.  Climate change affects food availability through its effects on agriculture and food production in complex ways, and also on the other determinants of food availability – distribution, and

exchange  (Erickon,  2006).  The  effect  of climate  change  on  access  to  food  operates through  physical,  social  and  economic  factors.  After  production  the food  need  to be moved from the point of production to the point of consumption, the transport system and other  infrastructures  needed  to  access  food  are  affected  by  climate  change.  Climate change has been seen to affect food utilization through its effect on the factors that help in benefiting from nutritious food. These factors include safe drinking water, health care and environmental  hygiene.  In  addition,  stability  of  crop  yields  and  food  supplies  is negatively  affected  by  changing  weather   conditions,  so  as  agricultural  production declines, food prices rise, and  purchasing power decreases affecting the stability of the other food security variables (FAO, 2010;  Erickson, 2006).

Decline in water availability has continually force households to adapt   their lives and livelihoods to the change (Adeniyi et al. 2009).  Adaptation to climate change involves deliberate adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours to reduce the risks to people’s  lives  and  livelihoods  (Enete  and  Amusa,  2011).    Producers  who  possess adequate  levels  of  capital  and  technology  should  be  capable  of  adapting  to  climate change.  Changes  in types  of crops  and  animals  that are  grown  may be required  for adaptation, and the cost of this adaptation will be seen in the increase in price of the farm output. The extent of food insecurity in the face of climate change critically depends on the responses of farmers, consumers, policy makers and traders. These responses could be gauged  in  terms  of  the  adaptation  and  adoption  capacities  of  farmers  and  on  the adaptation responses (behaviour) of the policy makers, traders, and consumers.

Taraba state has been seen to be vulnerable to climate change impacts, (Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF), 2005), and the limited risk absorption capacity of poor people means that they are unlikely to be able to cope well with the added  risk imposed by climate change (Blewitt, 2008). According to IPCC study, the impacts of climate change on incomes of these vulnerable groups after adaptation would tend to be negative and in the range of 0 to –10 percent (IPCC, 2002). This is due to the fact that the poor is forced to spend much of their little income on food (worldwatch, 2010). So food insecurity will persist  in  places  where  industrial  agriculture,  long-distance   marketing  chains  and diversified  non-agricultural  livelihood  opportunities  are  not  economically  significant (britannica.com).  This  situation  is typical  of  Taraba  State  where  the  main  economic activity revolves around agriculture. There have been incidences of flood in Taraba state. Notably, was the eight hours heavy rain on 7 August 2005, that over flooded the state, which led to the collapse of the Jalingo bridge, displacing 50,000 people from their homes and killing over 100 people (DREF, 2005), this was said to be unprecedented in the last 40 years. This  evidences indicate that more frequent and more intense extreme weather events,   has      impacts   on  not   only   food   production,   but   also   food   distribution infrastructures,  incidence of food emergencies,  livelihood  assets,  farming  system,   and food price in  Taraba State.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

According to Anthony (2009), Africa remains one of the most vulnerable continents to climate  variability and low adaptive  capacity.  This is because of the continent’s  over dependence on natural resources. Climate change effects on on a nation’s food security, invariabily affects the nation’s development (Swilling and Annecke 2012; Agwu et al.,

2011). In view of FAO (2008) and von Braun (2008), climate change effects on  food security  is  region  dependent  and  most  severe  on  the  poor.  Impacts  such  as  rising temperatures and increased frequency of extreme weather events put severe pressure on food security which involves availability, stability, access, and  utilization of food (von Braun,  2008).  In Nigeria,  too  heavy or  scanty  rainy  season  would  negatively  affect harvest (Kamoru and Oludare, 2007), thereby affecting the the price and quantity of food

available in the market and to the consumers. The negative effects of climate change will be seriously felt in the north east areas of Nigeria,  where Taraba is located,  that are characterised with erratic weather (FEWS NET, 2008).

The climate situation and food production system of Taraba state, a tropical region, where agricultural production is both a major source of food and income, has been noted to be seriously affected by the changing climate (DREF, 2005; von Braun, 2008), and there are many food  insecure  households  in this  State  (DREF,  2005).  Considering  the  unique climate condition of Taraba, that is quite different from areas where studies on climate change has already been done, we need empirical facts for understanding and combating the effects of climate change on food security in  the State.

There have been many research works on climate change, recent ones had focused on regional  and  national   assessments   of  the  potential  effects  of  climate   change   on agriculture.  These  efforts  have,  for  the  most  part,  treated  each  region  or  nation  in isolation, without relation to changes in production in other places, because there is no “one fits all” solution at local level. At the same time, there has been a growing emphasis on understanding the interactions of climatic, environmental, and social factors in a wider context (Parry,  1990),  leading to more  integrated  assessments  of potential  impacts  in national impact studies completed in the United State (Smith and Tirpak, 1989), Canada (Smit, 1989), Brazil (Magalhaes (1992) and Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand (Parry, de Rozari, Chong, and Panich, 1992). Regional studies have been conducted in high latitude and semi-arid agricultural areas (Parry et al., 1988), and the US Midwest (Rosenberg and Crosson, 1991). von Braun (2008), climate study focused on the combine effect of mean climate change and energy on food security. Rosenzweig,  Parry, Fischer and  Frohberg (1993), studied climate change effects on the world food supply. IPCC (2002), assessed the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources. Another relevant study

dwelt  on  Supporting  integrated   and  comprehensive  approaches  to  climate   change adaptation   in  Africa  (Agumbah,   2010).  Pinstrup-Andersen   (2003),   discussed   how government policies can reduce food insecurity caused by rural poverty and fluctuations in weather patterns and markets to which the rural poor are exposed.

There is yet a dearth of information on Nigeria regional climate variability and extreme events; and it consequences on food security situation of the northern zones of the country that are located within the Sahel belt and are therefore prone to bouts  of drought and desertification.  Literature and ideas on how the negative effects of climate change   for developing countries and food insecure people could be mitigated or adapted is still very limited (von Braun 2008 and Agumbah, 2010), whereas the extent of food insecurity in the face of climate change depends on it.

There have been many studies on food security situation in Nigeria including, Omotor, (2009),  on an  analysis  of food  security  situation  among  Nigerian  urban  households, expenditure approach was used in assessing food security. Adeniyi, Ogunsola   Nymphas and  Oladiran  (2009),  reported  on  food  security  measures  during  uncertain  climatic conditions  in  Nigeria.  They  looked  at  food  security  as  a  function  of  agricultural productivity and income. It is important to note, that  some low income households are more food secure than some high income households (Opsomer, Jensen, and Pan, 2003). There is therefore a need for a more direct method of assessing food security in a country like Nigeria where most of its citizens are farmers, who do not necessarily buy most of their food. The ways households cope with food insecurity should also be investigated in other to have a clear picture of food insecurity.

It is important to note that even in terms of food availability, all current assessments of world food supply have focused only on the impacts of mean climate change.  The effect

of possible significant shifts in the frequency of extreme events on regional and isolated local food security potential have not been considered. Also, there has to date been no or little specific integrated assessment of the potential effects of climate change on the food security situation of regions in  Nigeria.

Considerable studies have questioned just how the change in the climate extreme events might affect food security in different regions, and by how much; and  whether the net result will be harmful or beneficial, and to whom. This work  did not discuss in detail the wider set of factors/driving forces that govern food system activities and food security, such  as  demographic  developments,  changes  in  economic  systems  and  trade  flows, science and technology developments  or shifts  in cultural practices. Instead, the work focused  on  disentangling  the  pathways  of  climate  change  extreme  events  and  food security outcomes in Taraba State of Nigeria.

From the foregoing, this research in addition to filling some of the above mention gaps, attempted to answer some key questions of:  does climate change exist in Taraba state? how are the  people  adapting  to  the  effects  of climate  change  and  coping  with  food insecurity?    The  research  also  involved  estimating  the  food  security  status,  and  the climate changes known and potential effect on food security in Taraba State of Nigeria.

1.3 Objectives of The Study

The broad objective of this study is to examine the effects of climate change on the food security of households in Taraba State Nigeria. The specific objectives are to:

(i)   describe  evidences of climate change extreme events in Taraba state; (ii)  identify the climate adaptation practices of households;

(iii) acertain  the food security status of  households;

(iv) identify the food  insecurity coping strategies of households;

(v)  ascertain the effects of climate extreme events on food security of households;

(vi) ascertain the effects of climate change adaptation practices on food security status  of the household.

1.4    Hypotheses

The following null hypotheses guided this study.

1)  The rate of climate change extreme events do not significantly affect food security

2)  Climate  change  adaptation  practices do not significantly  affect  the  food  security status of household.

1.4     Justification of the Study

According to Adeyinka, Bankole and Olaye (2005), climate change in the environment as can be seen in the changing temperature and precipitation. Climate change is a massive threat to human development and in some places like Nigeria: it is already undermining the achievement  of the millennium  development  goals and  international  communities’ effort to reduce poverty and eradicate hunger.

What happens to food security in a given region, or country, will depend on the interplay of the set of dynamic factors specific to each area. Understanding the potential impacts of global environmental change on this sequence of interlocking elements is a first step in understanding food security of this area and knowing what will happen when any one of them is changed as a result of possible climate variations, is a prerequisite for defining appropriate societal responses.

This  study  will  help  to  create  awareness  and  prepare  the  rural  communities,  the researchers  and the policy makers for this uncertain  but challenging  future  caused by climate  change.  It will also  help  the rural community  in understanding  the effect  of climate change on food production and the rising food price which they are experiencing

and then make efforts on how to adapt or mitigate it. Researchers through this work will be aided to understanding the relationship between the crises of climate change and the global problem of food insecurity. This study will help the government agencies saddled with the responsibilities of protecting the environment and ensuring food security in the country to make policies and other efforts, in achieving the stated goals.

Hence, the starting point for addressing this serious issue of food security through policy should be an analysis of existing agricultural, environmental and food security policies in this country as well as effective documentation of climate change effects and adaptation, and food security status and coping strategies of the household. In order to enlighten the major stakeholders on the dynamics of climate change and food security; there is the need to  understand  the  different  adaptation  strategies  employed  by the  people  to  climate change and food insecurity. Therefore research in this area is of importance for evidence- based advocacy.  Again, with the goal of achieving the millennium  goal of eradicating hunger  this research will help  monitor progress  achieved  so far in Taraba State. This research is necessary at this point to form the bases upon which the building blocks of food security policies and climate change adaptations will be laid. Finally, findings of this work will be used for  future policy documents on climate change adaptation and food security measures.

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