A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR EVALUATING MOBILE NUMBER PORTABILITY IN NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

Mobile Number portability (MNP) is a platform that enables subscribers to seamlessly switch mobile telecommunications service providers without changing their phone numbers. MNP gives the subscribers the privilege to easily change from networks that are not serving them well and also return when the network improves ensuring greater flexibility and mobility across networks. The essence of this number portability is to improve quality of service by deepening competition among service providers. This technology was launched in Nigeria in 2013 by the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) but failed to achieve the desired goal due to some restrictive policies such as the 48hr duration, 90days lock-in effect and so on as identified in this research. The objective of this research therefore is to design a predictive model that simulates the behavior of these restrictive policies on MNP so as to ascertain their current impact on the non expansion of MNP adoption in Nigeria and also assess the future possibility of MNP expansion. The essence is to evaluate if MNP can be enhanced for higher patronage so that quality of service can increase. The research also aims at comparing the existing MNP call routing frameworks with a view to coming up with a hybrid framework for the enhancement of MNP in Nigeria. An MNP Growth Trend Trajectory Simulator/Predictor (MNPGTTS) has therefore been developed alongside a hybrid call routing framework using Visual Basic.Net version 10 and Microsoft Access as the DBMS engine. While MNPGTTS is capable of forecasting the impact of the MNP restrictions, the hybrid framework ensures improved quality of service and reduction in network congestion. The methodologies that were deployed in packaging the model include the statistical methodology, Structured Systems Analysis and Design Methodology (SSADM), Object Oriented Design Methodology (OODM) and prototyping. The MNPGTTS model was test run using the beta coefficients derived from SPSS multiple regressions and ANOVA of collected field data as the indices and later adjusted values of the indices were plugged into the program to assess the future possibility of MNP expansion. A test run of the simulation software demonstrated that if government still allows the existing restrictions, subscribers may not be motivated to port. Also that if government can remove or improve on most of the restrictions towards the adoption of MNP in Nigeria, MNP will receive a boost in terms of patronage, and should government further stiffen the restrictions, MNP will totally collapse. The result is indeed functional software that can be used to simulate the behavioral impact of any government policy for the telecommunication industry.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1. Background of Study

There has been rapid growth in the penetration of mobile telephony services in the last few years. But the growth has neither been exponential in the quality of service offered nor has it provided an open platform for fair competition for smaller telecommunication operators. Subscribers are not satisfied with the operators’ services and their frequent derailment from meeting their service level agreements has become more challenging. Before the advent of MNP, subscribers are required to give up their mobile numbers on changing service providers. This has not only led to untold inconveniences to subscribers but also the service providers have capitalized on this lapse to either exploit the subscribers or impose unreasonable charges to subscribers. In addition, when mobile numbers have been used in multiple important correspondences, it becomes nearly impossible to give up the number for fear of missing important calls from old contacts. The picture has now changed dramatically with the introduction of mobile number portability (MNP) technology.

Mobile Number Portability gives the subscribers the privilege to easily change from networks that are not serving them well and also return when the network improves, ensuring greater flexibility and mobility across networks. The essence of this number portability is to further stiffen competition among network providers and at the same time ensure better quality of service. To adopt this new concept and remain competitive in the today’s telecommunication market however, the operators require more strategic investments in new technologies, network upgrades, new business processes, and government is meant to enact laws and regulations including driving cost models(Odii and Onuoha, 2012).

In MNP terminology, the operator who loses a customer is known as the Donor Operator while the one receiving a ported number is referred to as the Recipient Operator. As an illustration, before the introduction of MNP in Nigeria, all numbers prefixed with 0805 were routed to Globacom, 0803 to MTN and 0802 to Airtel, 0809 to Etisalat. With the implementation of MNP, 0803 numbers for example, can now be ported to any network.

The history of MNP started in 1990s with Singapore implementing a limited version of this functionality in 1997, Hongkong implemented in 1999, Spain in 2000, and Australia in 2001 the

list go on and on (Maicas, Polo and Sese 2009).Though several developed countries, such as Canada, New Zealand, and Israel, did not implement MNP until 2007, but by September 2008, a total 48 countries around the world had launched MNP. The number of countries implementing MNP continued to increase rapidly that by 2011 there were 63 countries that had implemented MNP, (Muchiri, 2011). This wind of the MNP, which has been blowing in Europe and America over a decade ago has even cut across the African continent and Nigeria in order not to be left behind the wheel joined in April 22 2013 to become the 64^th country of the world to embrace the MNP scheme,(Adekunle ,2013).

As the list of countries that have adopted number portability continues to grow, new technologies needed to support number portability also continue to evolve. More importantly, the increase in number portability awareness among subscribers has resulted in an increased expectation by subscribers that taking their numbers with them when changing service providers should be seamless and trouble free, (Syniverse 2006).

Atiya (2010) identified various types of number portability. These include: Service provider portability where a subscriber retains his/her number while moving to a similar service offered by a different provider; Service portability which allows a subscriber to move his/her service number between different service types; and lastly the location portability, enables subscribers to retain their numbers across geographical regions or national boundaries.

For purposes of this research, the focus will be on the service provider portability which can be fixed or mobile, and the mobile is the one currently being implemented in Nigeria.

According to Bernadi and Nuitjen (2000), MNP involves three factors: technical, operational and economical.

Technically, MNP requires additional mechanisms which enable numbers to be routed accordingly. Operationally, the process includes processes taking place between operators as well as subscribers. And economically, MNP is said to benefit consumers as well as the industry by increasing competition. MNP is not relatively a new phenomenon; it only requires that mobile telephone subscribers retain their telephone numbers when switching from one service provider of mobile telecommunications services to another. That is to say, whenever a subscriber is not satisfied with the services of any service provider, the subscriber can change the service provider while retaining the existing phone number (Atiya, 2010). This infuses competition among service providers and forces them to improve their service standards. However, subscribers are known to

be predominantly reluctant to switch their network operator if this means that they would have to change their telephone numbers. Changing one’s telephone numbers can be a major inconvenience and a potential barrier preventing the general public from taking advantage of the options available in a developed competitive telecommunications market which MNP offers.

History and trend of telecommunication in Nigeria can be traced back to 1960.When Nigeria gained her independence in 1960, there were only 18,724 functional telephone lines out of an estimated population of 45 million, which was a teledensity ratio of 0.04 telephones per 100 people (Shoewu et al., 2008). And for thirty-odd years of military rule, there       was     very   little   or no investment in the Nigerian telecommunication industry.

Then, August 2001 was like a dawn of a new era in the history of Nigeria telecommunication when the first Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) call was made under a democratic government. This era of GSM technology completely changed the face of doing business in Nigeria. However, four years after the first GSM call was made, the mobile communication industry in Nigeria had changed a lot. There are presently five GSM network and thirteen CDMA (Code Division Multi Access) based network operators in Nigeria, (Roger, 2010). The GSM operators include Airtel, MTN, MTEL, Globacom, and Etisalat while CDMA network operators include Multilinks, Starcomms, O’net, Visafone amongst others. Competition for subscribers became fierce; operators have resorted to “price wars” to win subscribers. Subscribers, on the other hand, have more choices than before as to which GSM operator to patronize. Moreover, as the competition among Mobile Service Providers    continues to increase and the desire or need by the subscribers to change to other mobile networks with better services heightens each day, most subscribers still place much value on retaining their telephone numbers.

This reluctance to change to new mobile networks is due to the envisaged administrative, marketing, and goodwill costs. Thus subscribers have been forced to buy multiple handsets or subscribe to two or more service providers at same time leading to the success of “dual-SIM” handsets in Nigeria (Tiamiyu and Mejabi, 2012). This has made communication very expensive to an ordinary Nigerian subscriber. The above scenario underscored the vitality and desirability of Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in Nigeria. Which will among other things reduce the unwanted investments made by subscribers in the search for better service options and most importantly improve service provider competition and force them to improve quality of service rather than investing on deceptive promos. And to guarantee the provision of this much needed quality of

service these operators must be closely monitored or checkmated by both the government and subscribers. Now the MNP became the only way out to tame these mobile operators/service providers. MNP is the much awaited investment and a positive gateway to development in the Nigeria telecommunication industry.

Based on this realization, the proposal to implement Mobile Number Portability was first raised by the Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commissions (NCC) Ernest Ndukwe at a public lecture held at the NCC secretariat (http// www.ncc.gov.ng). During the lecture, he made the mandate for the implementation of MNP known to the various telecommunication operators in Nigeria and December 31st 2007 was first fixed for the implementation.

The initial consultation paper containing the framework for MNP implementation was released by the NCC in February 2009 and it was targeted for introduction in Nigeria in the last quarter of 2009, (Tiamiyu and  Mejabi, 2012).

Following the approval of the MNP framework by the government, the Commission began plans to develop the regulatory, legal and technical structure for the implementation of MNP in Nigeria as well as the process of selecting a suitable vendor to run the Number Portability Clearing House with the publication of a “Request for Quotation (RFQ)” document for the provision of services with regards to the “Administration of Number Portability Clearing House” in Nigeria. The framework spelt out the business rules for managing the processes for porting mobile number(s) between mobile service providers. This was a revolutionary step in the development of telecommunication services in Nigeria.

Hence, the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) finally launched MNP in Nigeria in 22 April 2013 making Nigeria the 64^th country of the world to embrace the scheme. The much awaited scheme at last came to be four years after the initial target, (Adekunle, 2013).

The MNP implementation in Nigeria is in furtherance to the NCC’s objectives of protecting consumer interest, through the development, monitoring and enforcement of compliance with regulations by telecom service providers in order to ensure better quality services, fair pricing and competition. And it is also in line with the provisions of section 128 of the Nigerian Communication Act (NCA) 2003 which vests the NCC with the exclusive right to regulate numbers and number portability in Nigeria. In adopting the MNP, Nigeria has joined the league with countries like the United States, the Netherlands, Singapore, Kenya and Ghana as a number porting nation. With this Nigeria has thus become the 64th country to implement mobile number

porting after South Africa pioneered other African nations in 2006, followed by Kenya and Ghana in April and July 2011 respectively, (Adekunle 2013).

So far, MNP is one of the most widely supported programmes embarked upon by both the NCC and GSM service providers in recent times. The scheme is expected to deepen competition among telecom service providers thus improving the quality of service. It challenges them to improve affordable services and compete for customer retention. Indeed MNP challenges GSM companies to sharpen their survival instincts. For the subscribers, MNP has at last conferred on them the status reflected in the popular expression: “the customer is king”. This provides customers an open platform to shop around for better services.

The MNP is being implemented in Nigeria in phases beginning with GSM mobile networks. Thus, as at the time of this research, the networks involved in the present phase of implementation are Airtel, Etisalat, Glo Mobile and MTN.

However, contrary to expectations, GSM service providers have latched on to the MNP scheme just to broaden the scope of their promos and advertisements rather than improve services as earlier envisaged, (Adekunle, 2013). From observations thus far, little has changed in terms of network coverage and the volume of dropped calls and intermittent service seizures, and other quality of service concerns. Thus the expectations raised by the MNP scheme are not being fulfilled and Nigerians again are looking to the NCC to rein on the GSM operators who have merely capitalized on the scheme to indulge in a wild medley of promos without improving their services. Indeed, MNP seems not to be recording expected success in Nigeria with only a handful of subscribers that switched networks within two months of its launch (Adekunle, 2013). Subscribers’ lamentations on the traffic lull in the process of porting seem to be hindering the scheme. Hence, it is pertinent to state that up till date the launch of MNP in Nigeria seemed not to have recorded expected success. The scheme is meant to compel the mobile network operators to be more accountable to subscribers and treat them as kings. It is expected to enhance billing integrity, since operators would not want to lose customers who may be willing to shift to another network if they feel short-changed by the network’s billing system. In spite of these envisaged benefits of MNP, most subscribers in Nigeria have not embraced the scheme. This work therefore tries to explore some of the factors why MNP is yet to succeed in Nigeria, the impact of MNP since its inception and also develop a model that can be used to check the viability of MNP as it stands now while at same time peep into the future of MNP in Nigeria.

1.2         Statement of the Problem

Despite the fact that MNP has been introduced in the Nigerian telecommunication industry, it has neither produced the desired effect nor provided the needed impact on the sector. Subscribers are still unwilling or reluctant to embrace the MNP scheme. And as a result, subscribers are still facing switching costs associated with informing people about new number change, printing new business cards, missing valuable calls from people that do not have the new numbers, etc. Some subscribers for fear of losing contacts are forced to stay with a particular service provider irrespective of the cost, or poor service. Hence the major problems to be addressed in this research are to find out why Nigerians have not fully embraced the deployed Mobile Number portability, identify the factors responsible for the failure of MNP in Nigeria, and modify the current MNP framework in Nigeria. The research also assesses the impact of MNP since its inception on quality of service, call tariffs among other things and finally suggest what can be done to enhance MNP adoption in Nigeria.

1.3               Objectives of the Study

The aim of this research is to develop a model that predicts the future of MNP in Nigeria, and also to develop a hybrid call routing framework for the improvement of mobile number portability in Nigeria. The system will be able to achieve the following functionalities or objectives:

1. Explore and analyze the factors inhibiting the adoption of MNP in Nigeria.
   1. Develop an MNP mathematical predictive model.
   1. Use the model to monitor the MNP growth trajectory in Nigeria under three scenarios.
   1. Evaluate the performance of the model vis-a-vis the result of the analysis.
   1. Compare the existing call routing frameworks and develop a hybrid framework for routing of calls to ported numbers.

1.4         Significance of the Study

The importance and the inevitability of this research are very obvious. There is a growing disillusionment by Nigerians on MNP because of the prevailing poor quality of service, network failure, increment in call tariffs etc and the inability of MNP to help resolve these issues which is affecting business transactions that are dependent on communication. And as such many

subscribers and operators have kicked against MNP in different ways. For instance some subscribers believe that instead of waiting for 48hrs to port their numbers, they would rather purchase a new SIM and start using almost immediately. They have forgotten that a new SIM implies a new identity and cost of informing friends and business associates about a new number change will at the end of the day be more than the cost of porting a number. Operators on the other hand have claimed that Mobile Number Portability is unnecessary and that it is an unwarranted expense, using assertions that the sector is already highly competitive and have suggested alternatives such as personal numbering and Universal Personal Telephony (UPT). But, these are not substitutes to MNP, but are rather expensive, value-added services. The sector may be competitive as they claim but with Mobile Number Portability in place, the remaining barriers to competition between operators would be removed thus paving way for a more dynamic and fully competitive market. Mobile Number Portability has a lot of advantages to offer. If not, why would both the developed and developing economies of the world embrace it? Embracing the MNP will position Nigeria to catch up with other developing economies like Ghana already investing in the scheme. And since other countries of the world are trying to keep pace with ever growing technological innovations, Nigeria should not be left behind.

MNP implementation in Nigeria will serve as a telecommunication gateway project for ICT in Nigeria by enabling the Ministry of Communication Technology to facilitate the installation of a consolidated national gateway monitoring system to help the sector accelerate the development of mobile telephony in Nigeria. The MNP infrastructure will as matter of necessity create the enabling environment for a competitive terrain that will enhance the delivery of affordable ICT services such as provision of universal access to telephony and services to underserved and un-served areas of the country, thereby bridging the digital divide between the urban and rural areas. The MNP framework will equally promote transparency in the communication industry and enforce the verification of the number of international telephones calls to Nigeria for the purpose of enhancing revenue generation for national development.

But implementing MNP is one thing, its workability is another. Though it has been adopted skeletally by NCC, however, it is not being embraced as expected. This is the area the predictive model of the research is very necessary. This model has clearly shown that MNP acceptability and workability are dependent on government’s ability to revisit its policies or restrictions on MNP. It has been substantiated empirically in this research with the help of a field data that if government

allows the existing restrictions on current MNP to remain, subscribers may not be motivated to embrace MNP scheme. And also that, if government reduces or eliminates most of the restrictions, MNP may become feasible and viable. It equally shows that if government should further stiffen the current restrictions, MNP will totally fail in the not far distant future.

Therefore, having seen the numerous benefits of Mobile Number Portability and possible ways for its successful adoption in Nigeria and as Nigerian subscribers continue to be aware of number portability in other countries, a time will come when it will be a matter of urgency for Nigeria to fully adopt MNP for her to be able to meet up with the communication demands from other countries. It is therefore necessary to fine tune and predict the future of MNP to see if its improvement can lead to the birth of a working telephony setup and that can improve communication in Nigeria.

1.5         Scope of this Study

This research covers the development of a predictive model for evaluating the existing MNP framework in Nigeria and the development of an optimized hybrid call routing model for enhancing the Mobile number portability in Nigeria.

The focus of this dissertation includes:

1. Assess the impact of MNP on the economy since its adoption using field data collected from all the 27 local government areas in Imo State.
2. Explore why Nigerians have not fully embraced the deployed Mobile Number portability,
3. Identify the factors responsible for the non-expansion of MNP in Nigeria
4. Develop software that predicts what happens if the inhibiting factors (bottlenecks) are retained, minimized, or if the bottlenecks are stiffened.
5. Establish practical recommendations on the improvement of MNP

However, we didn’t want to reinvent the wheel and thus considered it unnecessary to embark on the development of new MNP software for Nigeria.

1.6         Limitations of the Study

The researchers encountered a number of constraints in the course of this research. The major limitations include but not limited to the following:

• The use of only Imo state and a total of five hundred questionnaires for data collection were not sufficient enough to isolate the opinion of the larger society on MNP.
• Extracting information from the public either orally or by means of questionnaire proved a strenuous exercise. People were very uncooperative and reluctant to release information.
• The respondents returned only 356 questionnaires out of the 500 questionnaires that were distributed. Some of the questionnaires were poorly or improperly completed. Some respondents insisted on being motivated before they could answer the question.
• The All Call Query model already adopted by the Nigerian communications commission was a serious limitation to the development of the hybrid model. This is because the researchers did not intend to discard what was already in place but rather to improve on it.

1.7      Organization of the Dissertation

This dissertation is presented in seven chapters. The first chapter presented the general introduction to the concept of Number portability, a short historical perspective drawn from experiences across the world, the statement of the problem or what motivated the research, objectives of the study, significance, limitations or problems encountered in the course of carrying out this research, and the scope of the research were all outlined.

The second chapter reviewed hosts of literatures which have some relevance to the topic under study. The history and the motivation for the concept as well as the various approaches to Number portability scheme were reviewed. In this chapter also the researcher reviewed the works of other researchers in this area extracting their opinions, contributions, achievements, suggestions, failures, and where they stopped, and their recommendations for future work that warranted the necessity for this work. This chapter therefore has four sections namely: (a) Conceptual framework which presented the preliminary definitions and assumptions. (b)Theoretical framework which presented the body of knowledge in the Telecommunication industry. (c) Empirical research which sought to identify some work done locally on MNP. (d)The summary of literatures summarized the literature review.

Chapter three was mainly devoted for systems analysis and the methodology adopted in the research. In this chapter, an analysis of the present or existing system of porting visa vis its

weaknesses /problems were highlighted. The various MNP call routing frameworks were equally analyzed in this chapter. The researcher went further to ascertain from users the factors militating against the success of MNP adoption in Nigeria. The impact of MNP since its inception in Nigeria was also assessed. All these were made possible through the use of questionnaires that were administered to a total of five hundred respondents in all the Local Governments Areas of Imo State Nigeria out which 356 returned their questionnaires. The researchers at this juncture postulated two null hypotheses: Ho1 which states that the failure of MNP has no relationship with the isolated factors; Ho2 which states that MNP has no impact on quality of service, tariff reduction, employment opportunity, fierce competition etc. The Data collated were analyzed using the SPSS multiple regression and ANOVA and the results were equally presented and interpreted in this chapter. And the data analysis shows that MNP has a very close relationship with factors identified as Inhibiting factors affecting the success of MNP in Nigeria and based on this the first null hypothesis was rejected. Secondly, result from analysis also showed that MNP has failed to produce the desired impact on the quality of service, fierce competition, reduction in call tariff etc. as envisaged by the NCC and of course the second null hypothesis was accepted.

Then chapter four is where the researchers carried out the design of the predictor model and the hybrid framework. It is a schematic view of how the software will look like. It covered the objective of the new design, database structure, development tool, system flowchart, and the Input/ Output specifications and algorithm for the implementation of the hybrid model.

Chapter five is all about testing and evaluation. Here extensive testing of the software was carried out using raw data to ascertain its functionality. Also the performance of the model previously defined in this dissertation was evaluated.

Then in chapter six, the new system’s documentation and implementation were presented. Program development was discussed in details, the justification for the hardware and software platforms were discussed as well as program testing and maintenance considerations.

Finally in chapter seven the researchers summarized the work, drew some conclusions, made also some recommendations and suggested other areas for future work.

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