APPRAISAL OF THE BIRNIN-KEBBI CITY MASTER PLAN FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

ABSTRACT

The  study  is  aimed  at  appraising  the  Birnin  Kebbi  city  Master  Plan  with  a  view  to providing information that can influence policy for sustainable urban development. The objectives of this study are to assess the land use and land cover change from 1991-2018 and simulate the 2027 land cover change; to appraise the level of implementation/mismatch of the 1980  Master  Plan;  to  assess  the  level  of compliance of  the  Birnin  Kebbi  city development with International best practices for sustainable cities and upgrade a neighbourhood and develop an improved Land Use Plan that is sustainable for the growing population  in  Birnin  Kebbi.  Geographic  Information  Systems,  remote  sensing and  the administration of questionnaire through a stratified sampling technique were used for data collection and analysis. A supervised classification was applied to Landsat image of the study area from 1991, 2000, 2009 and 2018. The study revealed that urban/built-up area has increased from 1,687 hectares in 1991 to 7,725 hectares in 2018 and it is projected to increase by 2,034 hectares in 2027. Similarly, agricultural land increased from 9,270 to 43,921 hectares in 2018 and it is predicted to increase by 2,192 hectares in 2027, while vegetation has decreased from 73,030 to 54,992 hectares in 2018. It also revealed that the Master Plan was partially implemented, as the results indicated an increase in urban/built- up area, resulting from the conversion of other allotted land use into built-up/residential area.  The  assessment  of  the  level  of  compliance  to  international  best  practices  for sustainable development considered five major indicators and concluded that Birnin Kebbi is fairly sustainable in it development. Population growth and government policies are the major underlying cause for LULC change in the study area and the results indicated an increase in urban/built-up and agricultural land cover types, while vegetation and bare land cover decreased. This study recommend the deliberate measures to control natural increase in  population  through  government  partnering  with  NGOs  such  as  Gate  foundation, UNICEF and other aid  organisation to invest  more in the state in the area of family planning, education, poverty alleviation and green technology to improve child survival rate and ensure sustainable development.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1       Background to the Study

The challenge of humanity in the 21st Century is clearly “to meet the needs of the people, within the means of this extraordinary unique living planet, so that humanity and the rest of nature can thrive” (Raworth, 2018). Humanity is faced with a complex situation, at the same time we are solving for climate change; we are going to be building new cities, towns and urban centres for 3 billion people, which is doubling the current urban environment (Calthorpe, 2017). If we fail to plan our cities right, then no climate solutions in the world might prevent humanity from the worst effects of carbon in the atmosphere.

The controversy over the reality causes and consequences of climate change had been fairly concluded in 2007, with the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which made a categorical statement that it is real; it is human induced and predicting some very serious disaster scenarios (Tong, 2015). Cities or urban centres are the most extraordinary experiment in social engineering that we humans have ever created. Cities are one of the major contributors of greenhouse gasses in the world. They occupy just about 3% of the world surface area, account for more than 75% of the energy consumption and emit over 80% of greenhouse gasses (Muggah, 2017).

After the Industrial Revolution, the world human population gradually being to gather in urban areas, because of new job opportunities and improved living conditions. The 20th century witnessed the extreme and unprecedented growth of global urbanization. This has continue over the years in similar manner and has been driven by the continuous increase in global population growth; leading to a rise in total number of urban residents, from an annual average of 57 million within 1990 and 2000, to over 77 million from 2010 – 2015 (MacLachlan et al, 2017).

Without any universal catastrophe, an additional growth in human population from the current 7 billion people  to 10 billion by the  middle of the century is inevitable. The expected growth is motivated by the high birth rate in the sub- Saharan Africa, whose human population is projected to increase in twofold within the next 40 years; Asia’s population is also expected to increase by 23% (Cleland, 2013). According to UN-Habitat (2016), the population in urban areas has increased from 14% in 1900 to 30% in 1950. With the world’s population evenly split between urban and rural areas in 2008, it is predicted by the UN that by 2050 the urban population will increase again to 66% with nearly 90% of this increase being concentrated in Asian and African cities. Nigeria alone is projected to add 212 million urban dwellers between 2014 and 2050. In China, about 300,000,000 million people will move to urban areas over the next 15 years (Larson, 2012). All these should be of concern to us whether we live in a city or not.

Although cities are economic engines that create wealth, provide employment opportunities and drive human progress by harnessing the forces of agglomeration and industrialization (UN-Habitat, 2016), numerous towns and cities around the globe are largely not prepared for the complex and multifaceted challenges affiliated with urbanization and urban growth. This is because in most cases, urbanization or urban growth has depended on a prototype that is not sustainable in many considerations. Environmentally, the contemporary model of urbanisation encourages low-density urban development, mostly driven by private or individual need, rather than public interest.

This model is relatively made easier by the over reliance on individual cars and it energy demanding, thereby contributing dangerously to climate change.

Urban Planning involves objective or target based process adopted for urban development. It involves analysing and predicting the urban environment, quantitatively and qualitatively to identify and evaluate alternative policy options leading to a beautiful life (Musa, 2015). The Master Plan approach to urban planning is one of the earlier in the history of planning; it is aimed at guiding and managing urban development (Mishra, 2012). The Master Plan model is a type of spatial planning established on a comprehensive zoning system, land use maps and planning standards.

Due to its complicated and rigid nature, it has failed to solve numerous socio-economic problems arising from increased urbanisation and it is now been abandoned in many developed countries of the world. This model of planning is usually based on zoning and it encourages the centralisation of the various component of the society in different location and ultimately ends up in creating urban sprawls. For example, residential areas are separated from commercial areas, factories are moved to the outskirts of the city and administrative areas are located away from residential areas.

Sustainable urban development planning is a multidisciplinary approach to planning, which involves specialist from the diverse field of development planning, management, engineering, architecture, economics, accounting, history, sociology, geography, environment, policy formulation, public administration, statistics, demography, law, psychology,  computer  sciences,  Information  and  communication  technology.  This  is because if we are going to survive the 21st  century, we have to work together to create a functional,  liveable  and  resilient  cities.  Sustainable  development  is  a  common  and contemporary goal of many urban development policies in various countries (Abu-Bakar and Cheen, 2013).

The Agenda 21 is a blueprint for sustainable development in the 21st Century. It was held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 and was adopted by 179 nations (including Nigeria), and providing decent and environmentally friendly housing is one of the most important goals, and as such, it has significant potential to contribute to sustainability agenda. Similarly, the Goal 11 of the Sustainable Development Goals also emphasized on making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable by 2030, thereby necessitating the need for urban planning.

Even though urban transition is a universal event that is witness in all countries, the causes or determinants, pattern, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process (Farrell, 2017). Africa’s rapid urbanization is driven mainly by natural increase, rural–urban migration,   spatial   expansion   of   urban   settlements   through   the   annexation,   the reclassification of rural areas, and, in some countries, negative events such as conflicts and disasters (Bloch et al, 2015). As a result, urban planning or Master Plans are face with the problems of poor implementation at ground level. This has encouraged the development of slums and squatter settlements in many African cities such as Kibera in Nairobi, Makoko in Lagos and a host of others. In addition, given that African cities are among the poorest in the world, their growth rates signal a major challenge to their resources to build and sustain adequate infrastructure and public services for their growing population.

In Nigeria, the increase in urban population over the last 50 years has been extremely rapid and is expected to grow faster in the coming decades. The most dominant factor responsible for this rapid urban population growth and urban expansion is the declining mortality and persistently high fertility (Bloch et al, 2015). While rural-urban migration also contributes to urban growth, it influence is not as significant as the natural urban increase and reclassification due to rural densification especially in northern Nigeria. The production of fancy, well-articulated documents such as the Master Plan is very common in Nigeria; the major challenge is usually in the implementation of such document. Virtually all major towns and cities in Nigeria have a documented Master Plan, despite this, most of the cities and towns are expanding with little or no control.

Birnin-Kebbi is situated in Kebbi state and it is the administrative headquarters of the state. The total population of the city in 2006 was  268,620  and an estimated population of 366,200 in the 2016 demographic statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, (NBS, 2016). The rate of urbanisation in the state has being largely influence by the fast growing population. Despite having a Master Plan, the unchecked and uncontrolled urbanisation  has  led to  the replacement  of soil  and  vegetation  with  impervious  urban materials and the creation of slums and squatter settlements. These may, directly or indirectly, affect the albedo and runoff characteristics of the land surface, thereby, significantly influencing the local climate.

1.2       Statement of the Research Problem

Master Plans are generally prepared with a view to achieving decent and healthy environment for the purpose of growth and  development. The urban  design model of Master Plan where every component of the society such as residential, commercial and industrial areas are virtually segregated, are urban design of the 50’s and 60’s which encourage the development of sprawls, and are obsolete (Larson, 2012).

The new urbanism design concept, is to among others, promote walkability, mixed uses and diversity, connectivity, mixed housing, increased density, green transportation, sustainability, resilient, and improved quality of life. This is also known as the compact city or city of short distances concept. It is arguably a more sustainable urban settlement type than urban zonal system that promote sprawl because it is less dependent on the car, requiring  less  (and  cheaper  per  capita)  infrastructure  provision,  and  has  low  carbon footprint (Zubairu, 2017).

Birnin-Kebbi has a Master Plan that was produced between 1980-1983, with the aim of guiding its urban growth and development from 1980-2000. This plan has been reviewed several times but uncontrolled urban expansion is still a major problem. The city has witness unprecedented increase in population, leading to the formation of sprawls, slums and squatter settlements. This is due to the development model adopted in the design and the poor implementation of the Master Plan. Woodland (vegetation) and agricultural lands are being converted, mostly illegally, into residential areas with little or no basic infrastructure. This has increased the surface run-off of rain water, eroding the loose soil particles and creating gully erosion in some places.

Ideally, cities of the 21st century are supposed to be planned with the aim of reducing their carbon footprint in the atmosphere, while anticipating increase in population. The implementation of the Birnin-Kebbi Master Plan so far, does not demonstrate any consideration for climate change, neither does the plan envisage the rapid increase in it urban population. This is not a sustainable plan, especially when Nigeria population is projected to reach 400 million; and estimated to add 212 million urban dwellers by 2050 (UN-Habitat, 2016). The model of urban growth in Birnin-Kebbi encourages the use of unsustainable means of movement, leading to the increase use of dirty carbon-based fuel that is harmful to the environment.

The pattern of urban development in Birnin-Kebbi is everything but ideal.   Therefore, limiting  outward  urban  expansion  can  be  combined  with  more  efficient  use  of  land resources and more effective protection of natural resources to begin a process of reengineering the urban space. The question of how to make the urban growth and development  in  Birnin-Kebbi  sustainable  must  be  researched  upon,  because  this  can provide a national template for planning and development of future cities.

1.3       Aim and Objectives

The aim of this study is to appraise the implementation of the Birnin-Kebbi city Master Plan, with a view to providing information that can inform policy for sustainable urban development in the study area.

The objectives are to:-

i.      Assess the land use and land cover change in the study area from 1991 – 2018 and simulate the 2027 land cover change;

ii.      Appraise the level of implementation and mismatch of the 1980 Master Plan;

iii.     Assess  the  level  of  compliance  of  the  Birnin-Kebbi  city  development  with International best practices for sustainable cities.

iv.      Identify and pick a neighbourhood for upgrade and develop an improved Land Use

Plan that is sustainable for the growth of Birnin-Kebbi.

1.4       Research Questions

This subsection is design to provide the specific research questions to guide the research process in data gathering and analysis necessary in achieving the research objectives. These questions are-

i.      What is the extent of changes in land cover since 1991 -2018 and how will it be in 2027?

ii.       What is the extent of implementation of the Birnin-Kebbi city Master Plan?

iii.      To what extent does this plan conform to international best practice for sustainable cities?

iv.      What  is  the  most  sustainable  development  plan  for  the  growing  population  of Birnin-Kebbi?

1.5       Justification for the Study

The necessity of this study cannot be over stretch as the outcome would assist in policy and performance improvement, contribute to further research and add significantly to the existing body of knowledge; in the design and development of cities that can accommodate more people, ensure low emission level and reduce carbon footprint in the future.

Policy Improvement: The present study and its outcome will provide policy makers in the Ministry of Lands and Housing in the development, implementation and monitoring of policy on urban planning and maintenance for enhanced operational efficiency.

Performance  Improvement:  the  study would  also  benefit  all  the  staff  members  in  the ministry  of  Lands  and  Housing,  Kebbi  state  Urban  Development  Board,  and  urban managers in particular, with the requisite capacity, guide and strategies on best planning model  to  accommodate  the  expected  increase  in  population.  The  current  study would definitely benefit the academic society and researchers willing to undertake further studies in the field. It will also serve are reference material to review for future research in the field.

Body of Knowledge: this study would add to the body of knowledge by documenting it findings on the subject matter. Though these findings might be unique to the study area, it is useful in extending the frontiers of knowledge and serve as a good reference material for individuals and organisation.

1.6       Scope of the Study

The scope of the study is limited to the geographic boundary of Birnin-Kebbi. Birnin-Kebbi is the administrative headquarter of Kebbi state and the Master Plan is design to check urban growth and development in this area. The study will appraise the implementation of the Master Plan through urban growth from 1991 – 2018. However, the Master Plan was prepared  for development  from  1980  –  2000,  by the Sokoto  state  government,  major development started in 1991 when the local government became the capital of the newly created Kebbi state. The content scope of the study is on the physical and spatial elements of the Master Plan. These include the neighbourhood character and heritage; land uses (residential and commercial areas); open space and public realm; biodiversity, water management and utilities; and transport network. These are the major component of Master Plan that is mostly affected by population growth and urban expansion.

1.7       The Study Area

1.7.1    Location

Kebbi state is located in the north-western part of Nigeria. It was created from Sokoto state in 1991, during the Military government headed by Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, the state share boundary with Niger state to the south, Zamfara state to the east and Sokoto state to the north. The state also shares an international border with Niger Republic to the west. Birnin Kebbi lies between Longitudes 4º 011’E to 4º 381’ E and latitudes 12º 151’ N to 12º 351’ N. It is bounded to the north east by Argungu LGA, to the south by Kalgo LGA, to the east by Gwandu LGA, to the west by ArewaDandi LGA (see Figure 1.1)

1.7.2 Relief and drainage

Relief in the state is generally gently rolling to undulating. Further northwest of the study area, there are however, outcrops and steep cliffs of limestone, reaching 15m in height in the town and up to 30m just outside. In general, elevations throughout the state are mostly less than 300m (Birnin Kebbi Master Plan1980-2000).

The landscape of Birnin Kebbi is dominated by extensive flood plains. The Rima and the Shella rivers are located in the north and south east of the town respectively. Both rivers have broad flood plains. The Rima river system has major tributaries like Gawon, Zamfara and Gubinka. These tributaries rise in the Basement Complex region of Sokoto State and flow westward to join the Rima (Birnin Kebbi Master Plan1980-2000).

1.7.3 Climate

Previously, there are no weather element recording stations that exist in Birnin Kebbi, but the building and operations of the Birnin-Kebbi airport has change this narrative. Kebbi State enjoys a Tropical Continental type of climate characterized by distinct wet and dry seasons.

In Birnin Kebbi and environs, the highest mean daily temperature are recorded at the peak of the dry season just before the onset of the rains in April while the lowest are recorded at the peak of the harmattan periods. The mean temperature during the hot season is 370C while it could be as low as 80C during the cold harmattan period (December-February).

Relative humidity is much higher in the southern areas than in the north where Birnin Kebbi is located. It is also higher during the wet season than the dry season all over the country. Whatever the season, relative humidity is generally lower in the afternoon than in the morning. This is because the capacity of the air to hold moisture increases during the day with increase in the air temperature (Birnin Kebbi Master Plan 1980-2000).

1.7.4 Geology

The geological characteristics of Birnin Kebbi include thick and vast sequences of sedimentary deposits of the Sokoto basin, which underlie about 50% of the area. The rest is being underlain by the Precambrian basement complex rocks. The Sokoto basin is part of an  elongated sedimentary basin  underlying most  of north-western  Nigeria and  part  of eastern Niger republic. The Kebbi basin constitutes approximately 10% of the regional geological basin with its focal point in Niger republic. The sequence ranges in age from cretaceous to quaternary and is composed mostly of interblended sand, clays some limestone; all laid on an uneven floor of basement complex. The beds dip gently towards the northwest. Alluvium of quaternary age underlies the lowlands of the river and its attributes (Birnin Kebbi Master Plan 1980-2000).

1.7.5 Soils and vegetation

Wetland and savannah soils have developed throughout Kebbi state. The principal soils within the Birnin Kebbi region are the silt soils. These are heavy, cracking clayed soils with more than 35% clay have shrinking and swelling properties. The soils are high in minerals but have problems associated with spillage, poor drainage, flood and erosion. The entire Kebbi   State   falls   within   the   northern   Guinea   savannah   zone,   characterized   by heterogeneous mixture of vegetation, heavily disturbed by human influence and few trees of medium height which naturally provide habitat for a variety of wild life. Small holder and grazing agriculture activities are common in this zone.

The perennial grasses and herbs of the savannah provide a large and easily obtainable source of food for herbivore wild life (Birnin Kebbi Master Plan 1980-2000).Low acacia trees and shrubs with grasses, however, dominate the vegetative cover of Birnin Kebbi. Most of the trees have been felled to give way to agricultural and urban development although some species of neem trees could be indiscriminately found within the town.

1.7.6 Population and people

The population of Birnin Kebbi has increased from 47,682 in 1984 to 63,147 in 1991 to 74,027 in 1996, to 268,620 in 2006 and 366,200 in 2016 (NPC, 2016). Different tribal groups, such as the Kabawas, Fulanis, Zabarmawas, and the Dakarkaris inhibit the state. However,  the  various  distinct  tribal  groups  within  Birnin  Kebbi  have  significantly increased due to its status of been a state capital. The major ethnic groups in the state capital include the Gungawas, Dandawas, Dakarkaris, Kambaris, and more recently Yorubas, Igbos, Urhobos, etc.

1.7.7 Economic activities of Birnin Kebbi

The performance of the town’s economy since its creation (1991 to date) has exerted great influence   on   population   growth,   employment   structure,   physical   expansion   and development of the town. Birnin Kebbi is thus now serving triple functions as the state capital and Local Government Headquarters as well as the seat of Gwandu Emirate. Owing to these functions, it has now become centre of trade and commerce, serving the whole sub- region of far North West zone including the neighbouring Niger and Benin Republics. The local economy has attracted, and is still attracting migrants, from within and outside the country. This trend is manifested in the rapid population increase, physical growth and development of the town induced by the change in its status.

Birnin Kebbi is sandwiched between two fertile fadama lands; the Shella and Rima rivers fadama. Shella river fadama is situated approximately 3km  southeast of the town and averages about 1.5km width. The area extends continuously in an easterly direction before turning due south into the permanent water of Shella river. The Rima river fadama situated North West of the town, which runs southerly and finally empties into the river Niger. The Rima river valley consists of the largest fadama land in Kebbi state made up of 525,000 hectares out of which about 142,000 hectares remain after the flood as dry season pools of stagnant  water.  The  two  expanse  of  Fadama  lands  (Rima  and  Shella)  thus  provide important area of high value agricultural soils for planting of floating rice as well as other crops in the retreating floodwaters (Birnin Kebbi Master Plan 1980-2000). Little wonder why the state is a major player in the Federal government rice farming programme. This has also increased the population of the state in general and Birnin-Kebbi in particular, as many companies and collaborations such as the Lake-Rice (with Lagos state) has led to more employment opportunities and increased standard of living.

1.7.8    Challenges associated with Birnin Kebbi

Birnin-Kebbi is the capital of Kebbi state and the headquarters of the Gwandu Emirate. The state was created in 1991, out of Sokoto state with the aim of bring governance nearer to the people. The population of the city has increased over time from   47,682 in 1984 to 63,147 in 1991 to 74,027 in 1996, to 268,620 in 2006 and 366,200 in 2016 (NPC, 2016). The steady increase in the city’s population had led to a rapid increase in urbanisation. This increase, though, driven  by external, rural-urban and urban – urban migration, is also influenced by internal population growth. Some of the factors exacerbating this population movement include: economic advantage; Kebbi state is one of the major producers of rice in Nigeria and the federal government policy aimed at promoting local rice production has led to the influx of people from within and outside the state to work in rice farms and rice milling company (rice production chain).

The number of these type companies, such as LABANA Rice mills, WACOT Rice and a host of others, have increase due to the significant increase in electricity supply to the city. The city enjoys virtually 24 hours power supply because the state derives its power supply from the electricity line supplying Niger republic from Nigeria. Another major pull factor to the city is because of the security to human lives and property experience in the state, with respect to its neighbouring states. Kebbi state and Birnin-Kebbi in particular has witness the influx of people from neighbouring states of Zamfara, Sokoto and Kastina states because of the activities of armed bandits, kidnappers and herdsmen, resulting in an increase   need   for   residential   accommodation   in   the   urban   areas.   Similarly,   the establishment of the Federal University, Birnin Kebbi in Kalgo L.G.A, has attracted the movement of people from various part of the country to Birnin Kebbi, as most of the people schooling and working at the University prefer to stay there.

Birnin-Kebbi Master Plan designed to control development from 1980 – 2000 had been hampered because of the unprecedented rate of urbanisation. The implementation of this Master Plan has being very poor, as studies have revealed that forest and agricultural farmland have being legally and illegally converted to low and high-density residential areas.  For  example,  Abubakar  (2015),  revealed  that  the land  consumption  rate (LCR) increased from 0.022 to 0.089 between 1986 and 1999. This has aggravated the consequences of climate change in the study area, as the state now experience some severe and  unpredictable  weather  conditions  like  rainfall,  temperature  and  wind  storms.  In addition, the associated effects of poor planning and poor agricultural practice in Kebbi state are evident in the number of gully erosions in the state. This is one of the major environmental  problems  in  the  state;  others  include  drought,  deforestation,  seasonal flooding and overgrazing.

The present study will provide guide and strategies for the government or relevant agencies on best planning model to accommodate the expected increase in population and reduce the carbon footprint of the city. It will arm Kebbi State Urban Development Board and Town Planners with concrete facts about the compliance of the Master Plan with international standard for sustainable cities.

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